The upcoming byelection in Makerfield, where Andy Burnham aims to advance his bid for Downing Street, is arguably the most significant in British political history. However, the decision by the Scottish National party’s former Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, to move to Holyrood has triggered another pivotal contest over 350 miles to the north. While Makerfield tests Labour’s ability to fend off Reform UK, Flynn’s former constituency of Aberdeen South is at the heart of the increasingly contentious politics of North Sea oil.
Labour’s Challenges in Aberdeen South
Labour, despite finishing second in the 2024 general election largely due to anti-Tory tactical voting, does not anticipate a strong showing this time. The repercussions of Donald Trump’s reckless war in Iran have exposed Britain’s ongoing vulnerability to fossil-fuel-related energy shocks, underscoring the practical advantages of transitioning to a green economy. Yet the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also benefited the Scottish Conservatives and Reform UK, who frame the byelection as a local referendum on reviving oil and gas production beyond Westminster-imposed limits.
Local Sentiment and Party Positions
In a city once proud of being Europe’s oil capital, this message resonates with many voters. The SNP, like Labour, remains committed to net-zero targets but has equivocated on calls for more drilling in response to the Middle East crisis. Seeking to steer the debate toward nationalist grounds, First Minister John Swinney has advocated for greater Holyrood control over energy policy, updating 1970s slogans about “Scotland’s oil” for the renewables era.
The shifting mood is concerning given the economic and environmental stakes. Reform UK’s “drill, baby, drill” hostility to climate action may be too extreme for Aberdeen voters aware that future prosperity depends on becoming a clean-energy hub. However, rising energy prices and job losses in the oil and gas industry have given Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch a chance for a morale-boosting victory on SNP turf. The extraordinary spectacle of Nicola Sturgeon’s ex-husband Peter Murrell behind bars after admitting to stealing SNP funds could further increase the likelihood of an upset.
Broader Implications for the UK
Ahead of a UK general election where the right will attempt to portray net zero as an unsustainable economic burden, an SNP loss would be an ominous sign. Regardless of the result in Aberdeen on 18 June, the government should view the revived debate about North Sea oil and gas as a warning. Greater resources must be dedicated to ensuring a faster, more equitable transition. According to the Energy Transition Institute at Aberdeen’s Robert Gordon University, UK employment in oil and gas has fallen by 70,000 to 115,000 over the past decade, while 39,000 clean-energy jobs have been created.
Two years ago, announcing that the government’s new state-owned company, GB Energy, would be located in Aberdeen, Sir Keir Starmer pledged it would help “kickstart a UK-wide clean-energy revolution.” There is popular support and enthusiasm in Scotland for this, but also anxiety that communities will not be adequately protected from the kind of painful decline associated with deindustrialization in the 1980s. Makerfield will dominate media attention next month, but Aberdeen South’s byelection may also serve as a wake-up call for Westminster.
