UK population growth slowed to its lowest annual rate outside the Covid-19 pandemic since 1998, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The slowdown is largely attributed to a continuing fall in net migration, which has dropped rapidly since record levels in 2023.
While births still slightly outnumber deaths in the UK, the gap between the two has narrowed. The four UK nations show differing trends: Wales recorded its first population drop in a decade, Scotland and Northern Ireland saw almost no growth, and only England showed a small increase.
Population stands at 69.5 million
The total UK population was estimated at 69.5 million in mid-2025, up by 227,665 over the previous 12 months. This represents a rise of 0.33%, the lowest annual rate of increase since 1998, excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020.
This follows much larger jumps of 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024, which were driven by a spike in net international migration. Net migration in the year to mid-2025 is estimated at 222,900, down steeply from 651,700 the previous year.
Record low births and narrowing natural change
Some 652,400 births occurred in the year to mid-2025, the lowest in more than four decades, the ONS said. There were 647,500 deaths over the same period, meaning natural change contributed an increase of only 4,900 to the population.
This is lower than the previous year, when natural change stood at 16,200, but higher than the 12 months to mid-2023, when deaths outnumbered births, resulting in negative net change of minus 16,300.
Projections published earlier this year by the ONS suggested deaths could outnumber births each year from 2026 onwards, with population growth slowing and then halting, and the UK population starting to fall in the mid-2050s. These projections are based on current and past trends and are not forecasts or predictions, the ONS noted.
Reasons for falling net migration
Several factors are likely behind the recent drop in net migration. There has been a decline in people from outside the European Union coming to the UK for work-related reasons, following policy changes introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour administration, which tightened employment entry rules.
There have also been fewer arrivals through official humanitarian resettlement schemes, as well as an increase in people leaving the country.
Regional differences across the UK
England saw its population grow by an estimated 0.39% in the year to June 2025, while Scotland and Northern Ireland saw almost no annual growth, at 0.04% and 0.03% respectively. Wales saw its population fall by 0.09%, the first year-on-year drop since 2015.
There were more deaths than births in both Wales and Scotland. The ONS said this is because the population of both countries is older on average than in England or Northern Ireland, leading to a slightly higher death rate and lower birth rate. “The average number of children that are born to women in Wales and Scotland is also lower than the rest of the UK, which contributes to fewer births,” the agency added.
Net international migration contributed to population growth in all four countries, but in Wales this was more than offset by negative natural change, which is why the overall population there is estimated to have fallen.
