Predictions are ubiquitous; they are water to a fish, swimming completely unaware of the troubling ripples all around. The art of prediction has been with us throughout history, even back to ancient Greece and the Oracle of Delphi, but it has emerged as a key element of AI's power.
The Rise of Algorithmic Forecasting
The kind of AI we use is called machine learning, a system allowing computers to make decisions and predictions. You might switch off as you hear about these systems, or maybe even think this doesn't apply to you, but you should take note, as your life hangs in the balance. Whether you are seen as a good employee, whether you are denied a loan, a job, whether you are approved for a mortgage or who pops up on dating apps, prediction data affects everything in your life.
We tend to associate prediction with knowledge. But predictions are often power-plays in disguise. Tech leaders whisper in the ears of our leaders, much like astrologers used to. They justify value-laden decisions under the pretence of facts. And we are relying on forecasting more than ever with AI. But while AI can be a great technology to make predictions about molecules in the search for new antibiotics, predictions about human beings are fundamentally different.
The Manipulative Nature of Predictions
Predictions invite manipulation. Take prediction markets. If you have enough money, you can use it to influence public perception by betting vast amounts of cash on something. Politicians have bet on themselves. In February this year, six anonymous accounts earned $1.2m betting on the attack on Iran. Some of those wallets were funded hours before.
Predictions are never facts. But they are misleading because they sound like facts. Social predictions are veiled commands. They implicitly tell us how to act. For example, when a tech executive says that in the future AI will be used for everything and everywhere, he is trying to get you to act in a way that will fulfil his vision of the future – the one that happens to line his pockets. And when you believe that prediction, as if it were telling you something about the future, when you buy into AI, for example, then you contribute to the self-fulfilling prophecy.
How to Resist the Prophets
So what can we do to not sleepwalk into it? Plenty. Awareness is key. Sometimes we take these tech execs far too seriously. Part of what it means to protect democracy is making fun of power – irreverence is very important.
Prophets gain their power from people believing in them. In short, ask yourself if you want the future that is being predicted. Predictions only work if people believe them – in which case they can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Despite not being facts, predictions can create and cover up injustice.
The Kafkaesque World of Algorithmic Decisions
Algorithmic predictions are building a Kafkaesque world in which we can no longer contest decisions because they are not based on clearly defined criteria. If I reject your loan application because you don't fulfil a particular requirement, that's a verifiable fact. If I'm wrong, you can challenge me. But if I reject your loan application on the basis of a prediction, there's no way you can contest that. Predictions are unverifiable since they are about the future. They cannot be challenged for being false, thereby creating the perfect recipe for hidden injustice.
So claims need to be questioned. It is not always the case that when companies claim something, it is true – that is marketing. A recent article in the Harvard Business Review suggested that AI has not proven to improve efficiency because you might get the illusion that you are saving time, but when large language models (LLMs) make mistakes, things take longer.
The Inconvenience of Worthwhile Things
The point is, let's question things. Why? Because even if it is true that AI makes things easier, it is important to remind yourself that everything that is worthwhile is inconvenient: exercising is inconvenient, so is voting, having children, or eating well. We hold convenience as this vaulted aspiration more and more every day. The algorithm plays off of this laziness, most clearly with “content”, where your social media shows you what everyone else is watching.
The antidote? Exercise your own judgment. Read more widely. In today's world, reading is essentially an act of rebellion. You are engaging in complex arguments, profiting from the experience of another human being and you are not being surveilled. It also means exposing yourself to more serendipity; talking with strangers and not allowing algorithms to determine who you meet or what you like, who you meet, what you do – who you are.
Empowering the Next Generation
Young people have to understand what is at stake; the power play behind the scenes. And they have to be willing to be brave and creative and learn how to defy the odds. Instead of taking predictions as facts – take them as invitations to defiance. Ask more questions.
I'm not suggesting we do away with prediction entirely – I'm going to continue using my weather app every day. But predictions about the weather don't influence the weather. Predictions about people influence people. Social predictions tend to act like magnets. They bend reality towards themselves. They affect the reality they purport to predict. An algorithmic prediction about future disease can make someone's insurance premium go up, leading to worse outcomes from stress alone.
The Need for Public Debate
What we need is a public debate about the acceptable and unacceptable uses of prediction. That is a conversation that is not being had. One of the reasons we turn to prophets is because we are anxious about uncertainty. But uncertainty is good news. It means that the future is unwritten – that it is ours to write. And we can face the blank page with a sense of creativity and curiosity, with the excitement of a sense of adventure.
Efforts to predict the future go hand in hand with efforts to control it so beware of prophets and prophecies. It's only when we acknowledge that we don't know what the future holds and act accordingly that we can be sure to live in a free society.
I'll end by reminding you of the biggest boxing fight of the century in 1971 between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier, the only time two undefeated heavyweight champions have fought together. At the press conference Mohamed Ali predicted that he was going to beat Joe Frazier, who, instead of being intimidated, got really riled up and defeated Ali. So next time you hear a gloomy prediction about a future you don't want to live in, find the Joe Frazier within you – rebel against tyrannical predications and make the future you want to live in.
Carissa Véliz is an associate professor at the Faculty of Philosophy and the Institute for Ethics in AI, as well as a tutorial fellow at Hertford College, at the University of Oxford. Her book ‘Prophecy Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI’ is out now.
