Predictions have become as ubiquitous as water to a fish, yet many remain unaware of their influence. From ancient Greek oracles to modern machine learning, the art of prediction has evolved into a cornerstone of artificial intelligence. But while AI can predict molecular structures for antibiotics, predictions about human behaviour carry a different weight—they often serve as veiled power plays.
Tech leaders, much like astrologers of old, whisper predictions into the ears of policymakers, justifying value-laden decisions under the guise of facts. These forecasts affect everything from job prospects and loan approvals to dating app matches. Yet predictions are never facts; they are unverifiable claims about the future that can create hidden injustice. If a loan is denied based on a prediction, there is no way to contest it, unlike a rejection based on a verifiable criterion.
Predictions also invite manipulation. Prediction markets allow deep-pocketed actors to influence public perception by betting large sums on outcomes. In February, six anonymous accounts earned $1.2 million betting on the attack on Iran, with some wallets funded hours before. Such predictions become self-fulfilling prophecies when people believe them and act accordingly.
Awareness is the first defence. Irreverence towards tech prophets is essential for protecting democracy. Question claims from companies that tout AI efficiency; a Harvard Business Review article noted that large language models can create illusions of time savings while errors actually slow things down. Remember that worthwhile things—exercise, voting, raising children—are often inconvenient.
To resist algorithmic manipulation, exercise your own judgment. Read widely, talk to strangers, and avoid letting algorithms dictate your choices. In a world of pervasive predictions, scepticism and independent thought are acts of rebellion.
