UK net migration dropped to an estimated 171,000 last year, the lowest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The figures for the 12 months to December are down 48% compared with the previous year (331,000), according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It is the first time the estimate – which is the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country – has fallen below 200,000 since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.
Drivers of the decline
The continued fall in net migration is being driven by fewer people from outside the EU arriving in the UK for work, the ONS said. Some 813,000 people are estimated to have arrived in the UK in 2025, while 642,000 are likely to have left. Excluding the pandemic-affected years of 2020 and 2021, net migration in 2025 was the lowest for any 12-month period since the year to September 2012, when it stood at 157,000.
Political implications
The figures could lead to renewed calls for Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration policies to be watered down. Former deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner is among those to have voiced concerns about proposals to double the time it will take to qualify for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from five to 10 years. Marley Morris, from think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research, said the Government’s progress “should prompt a more measured debate”.
“An excessively tough approach now runs the risk of making policy for the pressures of three years ago, rather than the reality of today,” he said. “The priority should be to build a fair, well-managed immigration system that supports the economy and public services, not a race to push numbers ever lower.”
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp urged Labour to reform ILR “before their hard-left flank forces them to abandon it altogether”.
Public perception
The figures come as polling suggests 49% of the public think net migration increased in the past year, despite the number dropping rapidly. The survey by Number Cruncher Politics and think tank British Future of 3,003 adults in Great Britain found that some 16% of respondents correctly thought migration fell last year, while 51% expected it to rise again next year.
Government response
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the figures show his Government is “delivering” on his promise to “restore control to our borders”. Although “real progress has been made”, the Home Secretary said, “there is still work to do”, adding: “That is why I am introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends Britain’s reliance on cheap overseas workers.”
The Refugee Council’s Jon Featonby welcomed the Government’s progress on ending the use of asylum hotels, but said families fleeing war and persecution have “almost no safe and legal way to reach the UK”.
