The UK government's "one in, one out" deal with France, intended to deter small boat arrivals in the Channel, is expected to expire on Thursday, according to government sources. The agreement ran for 423 days, from 10 July 2025 until 1 October 2026.
How the deal worked
Under the arrangement, one asylum seeker who had arrived in the UK in a small boat was returned to France in exchange for another brought legally to the UK from France. The UK's official explanation for ending the scheme was that it had not been able to scale up the numbers of asylum seekers involved as much as it would have liked.
The scheme was beset with problems. Scores of asylum seekers returned to the UK during the scheme because they felt unsafe in France. Some were returned to France a second time, while others were allowed to remain in the UK to have their claims processed here. Many were believed to have vanished after being returned to France.
Numbers and French perspective
Approximately 1,500 asylum seekers were returned to France under the deal, with a similar number brought legally from France to the UK. The numbers removed were fewer than the total who arrived in small boats over seven days in the second half of last month. More than 40,000 people arrived in Britain in small boats during the period the deal was in place.
France reportedly wanted to end the deal because it did not want to accept small boat arrivals back from the UK alone and instead wanted the rest of Europe to get involved. Other European countries have so far not agreed to join the scheme. "Why do we have to manage this border on our own?" the French interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, said at a parliamentary hearing this year. "We believe that France should not have to bear the burden alone, and that it would be better to incorporate it into an agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom."
UK response and criticism
The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, said at a recent session of the Commons home affairs committee that it was difficult to pinpoint exactly why there had been a reduction of more than 40% in the number of people crossing the Channel so far this year compared with the same period last year. Others say that lower levels of irregular migration into the UK from France in the first five months of this year compared with the same period last year are likely at least partially due to a drop in arrivals of irregular migrants to Europe overall.
The Home Office said it would continue to remove as many small boat arrivals as possible. However, it is not possible to forcibly remove people to unsafe countries such as Iran, Eritrea, Sudan and others, where many on small boats come from.
NGOs such as Medical Justice have condemned the trauma they have documented due to the detention of this group, many of whom are survivors of trafficking or torture. Force was used against one in 10 of 224 asylum seekers during their removal to France in the first three months of this year, according to Home Office freedom of information data. Both the NGO Médecins Sans Frontieres and the French health organisation Samusocial documented physical and psychological injuries. At the home affairs committee, the home secretary suggested these injuries may have been self-inflicted. The Labour MP and committee member Bell Ribeiro-Addy accused the home secretary of "victim blaming" and said there was independent evidence of injuries sustained as a result of use of force.
Asylum seekers' reactions and future options
Asylum seekers reacted with relief to the end of the scheme. "Thank God. You gave me the best news," said one asylum seeker forcibly returned to France, after hearing the news. He is now considering returning to the UK. Another who is also hoping to return said: "That's good news. We just hope the UK doesn't make a worse agreement with a new country."
Successive prime ministers and home secretaries have vowed to stop small boats crossing the Channel, but so far none have succeeded. For as long as people flee war and conflict, a percentage of them are likely to turn up in the UK by one means or another. The use of return hubs in third countries is under discussion by some European countries, although no details have been confirmed.
