A new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) reveals that only one in ten Europeans now see the United States as an ally, marking a historic low in confidence in the American security guarantee. The poll, conducted across 15 countries, found that majorities in all nations doubt the US would come to their aid if attacked.
Deep European distrust in the US
The survey, published ahead of critical G7 and NATO summits, indicates deep mistrust towards Washington. While many Europeans believe relations will improve after Donald Trump leaves office, they are increasingly ready to bolster Europe's own defence capabilities to protect against US unreliability.
The report highlights that US President Donald Trump's Middle East aggression, threats against Greenland, plans to withdraw troops from European bases, and scepticism about NATO's future have prompted a growing pragmatism among Europeans. "Across the continent, there's clear support for reducing dependence on Washington," said Jana Kobzová, a co-author and ECFR senior policy fellow. "Europeans are increasingly open to higher defence spending and, crucially, show a striking degree of confidence that neighbouring countries would come to their aid in a crisis."
Growing support for European self-reliance
Paweł Zerka, another co-author, noted that public demand for greater self-reliance and the need to hedge against US defence guarantees have "created a window for Europe's leaders to go further and faster" on security. The survey, carried out in May in Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK, shows an average of just 11% of respondents viewing the US as an ally, down from 16% six months ago and 22% in November 2024.
The prevailing view is that the US is now a "necessary partner," though 13% consider it a rival and 12% a direct adversary. Majorities in every country are no longer confident the US would defend them in an attack. Except in Bulgaria, most people believe at least some European countries would help them in a similar scenario.
Defence spending and EU borrowing
Europeans are now on average 4% more likely to support higher national defence spending than last year. Italy is the only country where a clear majority remains opposed. On average, 47% of respondents back the idea of collective EU borrowing to finance greater defence spending, with 35% opposed. Support is strongest in Portugal (59%), Denmark (56%), the Netherlands (55%), and Spain.
In almost every country polled, most respondents say their country should reduce strategic dependence on US military hardware. "Buy European" sentiment is highest in Denmark (75%), the Netherlands (72%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (69%), France (66%), Switzerland (64%), the UK, and Spain (both 62%). However, there is less support for cutting domestic public spending to pay for higher defence budgets, with opposition strongest in Italy (63%), Austria (59%), Germany (56%), Spain (54%), and Denmark (52%).
NATO and EU defence
There is little backing (29%) for replacing NATO with a new EU-only defence body. The dominant view in almost every country except Bulgaria is that US-European relations will "probably get better" once Trump leaves office, held by 60% or more in France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Despite rising energy costs, 44% of Europeans say resuming oil and gas imports from Russia would be a "rather bad" or "very bad" idea.
Ukraine's EU membership ambition continues to divide opinion. Respondents in Hungary, Bulgaria, Austria, Germany, and even Estonia are more likely to oppose admitting Ukraine "in the current context" than favour it.
