Sir Keir Starmer has vowed not to resign, but a bruising set of local elections, which saw the Labour Party lose more than 1,000 councillor seats, have only increased pressure on the embattled prime minister. He has faced relentless criticism of his leadership since taking office in July 2024, compounded by a string of U-turns and the impact of Peter Mandelson’s security vetting scandal.
The elections were widely touted as judgement day for the prime minister, but he was hit by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK snatching councils, some of which had been Labour for generations, in northern England, while Zack Polanski’s Green Party lured voters away from him in former urban strongholds, including taking control of some London authorities.
Speaking on Friday morning, Sir Keir said he took responsibility for the results but insisted he would not walk away. “These are tough results, but tough days like this, they don’t weaken my resolve to deliver the change that I promised at the general election; they strengthen my resolve to do so,” the prime minister said.
Sir Keir faced speculation about his position before the results came in, with The Times reporting that energy secretary and former leader Ed Miliband had urged the prime minister to set out a timetable for his departure. But deputy prime minister David Lammy urged his party not to play “pass the parcel” with the leadership in response to the election results.
However, the drubbing at the polls marks a perfect opportunity for others in the Labour Party – some of whom are said to have been planning their leadership challenges for months – to finally strike.
Andy Burnham
Popular among Labour MPs, party members, and the general public, the mayor of Greater Manchester has been hinting at a leadership bid for months. Recent YouGov polling puts Mr Burnham far ahead of any other Labour figure in popularity polls, with 34 per cent of Britons thinking he would do a better job than Sir Keir.
Last year, Mr Burnham repeatedly failed to rule out a Labour leadership bid and has been regularly tipped as the leading candidate to take over should Sir Keir’s position become untenable. He was the focus of such rumours at the Labour Party conference last September, when he revealed that dozens of MPs were privately urging him to challenge the prime minister. He is currently unable to launch an official bid as he is not a sitting MP.
Earlier this year, tensions came to a head when a parliamentary seat came up in the northwest constituency of Gorton and Denton. Mr Burnham put himself forward to run for Labour in the historically safe seat, but was blocked by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC). Despite the government insisting the move was down to the potential cost of a Manchester mayoral election, critics accused Sir Keir and his allies of preventing the candidacy for factional reasons and out of fear of a leadership challenge. However, allies say he has a plan to return as an MP, and his team is reported to have lined up an “impressive” candidate to replace him as mayor, potentially removing Sir Keir’s reason to block him.
Angela Rayner
Rumours about the Ashton-under-Lyme MP’s ambitions have been thrown around from the moment she resigned from Sir Keir’s cabinet last September after it was revealed she had underpaid stamp duty on her Brighton flat. Once the prime minister’s number two, Rayner is popular on the soft left of the party and has been named as one of the MPs most likely to stage a coup against him.
Earlier this year, she launched what was widely seen as her clearest challenge to Sir Keir, as she warned Labour is “running out of time” to deliver change and cannot “go through the motions in the face of decline”. Rumours of a joint bid with Andy Burnham were sparked after she met with the Greater Manchester Mayor amid rumblings of a challenge to Sir Keir. Working with the Greater Manchester mayor could prove essential for Ms Rayner, who is trailing behind him in popularity polls, with only 15 per cent of voters believing she would do a better job than Sir Keir.
But there have been mixed signals regarding whether the former deputy prime minister would be keen on ousting Sir Keir altogether or just rejoining his cabinet. In December, the prime minister described Rayner as “hugely talented” and said he would like to see her return to his frontbench. In what was seen as a last-ditch attempt to secure his position ahead of the elections, Sir Keir reportedly offered Rayner a spot back in his cabinet. However, her intervention on Sunday appeared to see her throw her support behind Mr Burnham, as she told the prime minister that blocking the mayor’s bid to stand in Gorton and Denton was a mistake. In a stark warning to Sir Keir, she added: “Labour exists to make working people better off. That is not happening fast enough, and it needs to change, now.” Either way, it is unlikely she will be able to make a move until after the investigation into her tax affairs has been settled, which is expected in the coming weeks.
Wes Streeting
The health secretary is considered to be the most likely candidate to replace Sir Keir from within his own sitting cabinet. He is understood to have the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership bid, having recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a leadership election. Sir Keir was reportedly alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his bid, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
On the right of the party, he is a charismatic cabinet minister who is able to connect with the public. Chatter about a potential leadership bid grew louder towards the end of last year, amid a briefing war targeting the health secretary over his perceived ambitions to succeed Sir Keir. He has previously voiced his concerns about the direction of the government, and hit out at a “toxic culture” in No 10 when the briefings against him were made public in November.
Earlier this year, as questions around Sir Keir’s future reached fever pitch, the health secretary took the controversial decision to publish communications between himself and Lord Mandelson, which contained severe criticism of the PM’s economic and Middle East policies. The publication broke collective responsibility and would normally lead to a sacking, but Mr Streeting justified it by saying it was necessary to deal with “smears” that had been made about his relationship with the disgraced former Labour peer. The main obstacle facing Streeting is the perception among some factions of Labour that he is too far to the right of the party, and the general feeling that he does not have enough backing to launch a successful bid. His public popularity ratings are also low, with only 13 per cent of voters thinking he would do a better job than Sir Keir.
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband has emerged as an unexpected contender to be the prime minister, more than 10 years since he led the party to defeat in 2015. But in his time away from the helm, the energy secretary has carved a niche for himself as the party’s top advocate for green energy and net zero. Surprisingly popular among young people on social media, speculation has been rife that Miliband is preparing an attempt to make a comeback as leader.
The recent Mandelson scandal has seen him grow increasingly critical of the government, telling broadcasters last week that he had raised concerns about the appointment with David Lammy at the time. A supporter of Miliband told The Independent recently: “He has the energy and enthusiasm. He is loved by younger members of the party. He is a new man from when he was last leader.” Despite the noise, Miliband has denied he is eyeing up a leadership bid, and polling also suggests only 13 per cent of voters think he would do a better job than the current prime minister.
Al Carns
A surprise candidate is emerging to replace Sir Keir Starmer – members of the 2024 intake are pushing for former Royal Marines commander now defence minister Al Carns to put his hat into the ring. One member of the 2024 intake told The Independent: “Why are we turning once again to the same familiar faces to solve problems they were involved in creating? If we want to demonstrate genuine change to the public, we need a fresh face leading that change. Members of the 2024 intake are still hopeful of persuading Al Carns to stand should there be a contest, and support for that view appears to be growing.” It is understood that a leadership team is being put together to support Mr Carns if he decides to make a move.
