Voters in Wales are beginning to discover the outcomes of the nation’s 2026 parliamentary elections, as the initial wave of results from local contests in England paints a bleak picture for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Counting is underway for all 96 seats in the Welsh Senedd, with polling indicating a potential major shift in the political landscape by the end of Friday.
This election marked the first time Wales used the ‘closed proportional list system’ for voting, implemented to better align the number of seats a party or independent candidate wins with the percentage of votes they receive. Here is an overview of the results in Wales so far.
Forecast and Implications
Pollsters have predicted that Labour could lose control of the Senedd for the first time in 27 years, with projections suggesting the party might secure only 12 seats—its worst election result in Wales for over a century. YouGov’s modelling places Plaid Cymru as the most successful party, forecast to win around 43 seats. This would fall short of the 49 seats needed for a majority, potentially leading to a coalition agreement with Labour.
Reform UK’s Rise
Similar to trends across the rest of the UK, the void left by Labour’s collapsing support appears to be filled primarily by Reform candidates. The party, led by Nigel Farage, is forecast to take 34 seats, making it the second largest party in Wales. This surge reflects a broader shift in British politics, as Reform UK made gains across England, where hundreds of Labour councillors were voted out, heaping pressure on the prime minister.
National Context
In England, a difficult picture has already emerged for Labour, losing hundreds of seats as Reform sees massive gains. Sir Keir Starmer insisted he would continue in his role despite the losses, admitting it had been a “tough” night for Labour but adding that “days like this don’t weaken my resolve to deliver the change that I promised”. Mr Farage hailed the results as a “truly historic shift in British politics” away from the old era of Labour and Conservative domination, vowing “the best is yet to come” for his party.
Follow The Independent’s live blog for the latest local election coverage.
