A recent Emerson College poll indicates that Republican voters are closely split between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the potential 2028 GOP presidential nominee. The survey of approximately 1,000 likely Republican primary voters found that 36 percent would support Vance, while 35 percent would back Rubio. These two top Trump administration officials have long been considered frontrunners to succeed President Donald Trump, but the poll reveals significant shifts in support over the past few months.
Shifting Support
Between February and May, Vance experienced a decline of 16 percentage points among likely Republican primary voters, while Rubio gained 15 percentage points. This suggests that Rubio has resonated more with potential voters recently. Although Vance still leads in the Emerson College Polling survey and other polls, Rubio has made considerable strides.
Vance, 41, is often seen as the natural heir to Trump's legacy due to his youth, appeal to moderate Republicans, and connection with working-class voters. He has taken on prominent roles, including assisting in Iran peace negotiations and delivering speeches nationwide to boost Republican midterm chances. However, Rubio, 55, has risen in popularity by taking on multiple roles in the administration beyond Secretary of State, earning a reputation for reliability and experience. He has engaged in more public-facing activities, such as hosting a White House Press Briefing and publicly reconciling with Pope Leo XIV.
Trump's Influence
President Trump, who will likely influence the choice of his successor, has publicly teased both men by polling audiences at the White House about their preference. He has also suggested they could run together as a "dream team." Privately, Trump reportedly asks advisers, friends, and officials for their opinions on which candidate would perform better with the public.
Neither Vance nor Rubio has officially declared a candidacy. Last year, Rubio stated that if Vance were to run for president, he would support him, saying, "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him."
Consistent Trends
The Emerson College findings align with other surveys showing Rubio's surge. An AtlasIntel survey in early May found 45 percent of Republican respondents backing Rubio versus 30 percent for Vance. A McLaughlin & Associates poll indicated that Vance lost 10 percentage points between January and May, while Rubio gained 11 points, though Vance still led overall.
