A new poll from Emerson College shows Republican voters are closely divided between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the preferred candidate for the 2028 presidential nomination. Among likely Republican primary voters surveyed in late May, 36 percent supported Vance, while 35 percent backed Rubio.
The poll indicates significant shifts in support over recent months. Between February and May, Vance lost 16 percentage points, while Rubio gained 15 points, suggesting the secretary of state has resonated more with potential voters. Despite this, Vance still leads in the Emerson survey and others.
Vance, 41, is seen as a likely heir to President Donald Trump’s legacy due to his youth, appeal to moderate Republicans, and working-class support. He has taken on major roles in Iran peace negotiations and campaigned for Republicans ahead of the midterms. Rubio, meanwhile, has taken on more public-facing roles, including hosting a White House press briefing and making amends with Pope Leo XIV.
Trump has publicly teased both men, polling audiences on their preference and suggesting they could run together as a “dream team.” Privately, he reportedly asks advisers who would perform better. Neither has declared a run; Rubio previously stated he would support Vance if he ran.
Other polls mirror these trends. An AtlasIntel survey in early May found 45 percent of Republican respondents backing Rubio versus 30 percent for Vance. A McLaughlin & Associates poll showed Vance losing 10 points and Rubio gaining 11 points between January and May, though Vance still led overall.
