President Donald Trump celebrated Wednesday after his chosen candidate in the Texas Republican primary runoff for Senate, Attorney General Ken Paxton, defeated four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).
"Congratulations to Ken Paxton on such a tremendous win, and to John Cornyn for having run a strong and powerful race but, more importantly, having had a truly great career," he posted on Truth Social. The president also rehashed an old insult he once used for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, calling Paxton's Democratic opponent James Talarico "Alfred E. Neuman," the fictitious mascot for Mad Magazine. "A strong Open Borders advocate, he is WEAK ON CRIME, believes there are 6 genders, is insulting to Jesus Christ, will never support the Military, was a big Mask Wearer until recently, and is a Vegan who dislikes meat, not exactly a good way to be if you're wanting to win an Election in Texas," Trump wrote.
Immediately, Democrats have begun to make hay out of Paxton's numerous scandals: being impeached by Republicans in the state House of Representatives, and his alleged infidelity, which led his estranged wife, Angela, not to endorse him ahead of the primary. Talarico called Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America."
But Trump's interference to knock off a four-term incumbent Republican who outperformed the president in 2020 when the two shared a ballot has some Republicans worried that Trump's quest for vengeance will hurt Republicans' chances of holding onto the Senate.
Because of the contentious primary, Cornyn and Paxton spent more time attacking each other than attacking Talarico, a state legislator and Presbyterian seminarian. But Republicans have hit him for his past comments saying that people should consume less meat, his statement that there are at least six sexes and for proclaiming, "God is nonbinary."
"It was always going to be an expensive race," one Republican strategist based in Texas told The Independent. "Nobody's laid a glove on Talarico in any meaningful way. Right-wing cable and online noise only move the needle so far. By November he'll be defined as an emasculated vegan dweeb. It won't be pretty."
Republicans plan to use the same strategy that they effectively deployed during the 2024 presidential campaign, when Trump famously put out an ad focusing on how as attorney general, Kamala Harris provided gender-affirming care for people in prison, with the famous tagline "Kamala is for They/Them. President Trump is for you."
But Chuck Rocha, a consultant working for Talarico, said the attacks might fall flat amid the Iran war, rising gas prices and inflation. "Either way we know the Republicans are gonna run campaign on culture wars, while we focus on real wars and gas prices," Rocha told The Independent over text message. "They are gonna talk about who eats meat, while we talk about the PRICE of meat!"
Paul Steinhauser, a Republican consultant who served as Cornyn's campaign manager in 2014, told The Independent that the national environment will play a large role. "So, gas prices are averaging $4.50 or $4.75 gallon, I think that's bad news for Republicans," he said. But he said if gas hovers at $4 or below, Republicans should be in good shape. "I think ultimately it's going to be Republicans versus Democrats, as it typically is, and the middle, the independent voters, the swing voters, are small in number. But they can swing the election one way or the other. But independents in Texas tend to lean Republican, and I think that probably won't shift much."
Since Trump returned to office, he has trained his sights on Republicans he deemed insufficiently loyal. But unlike Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump and lost his primary in Louisiana, and Rep. Thomas Massie, who represents a blood-red part of Kentucky, Texas has wild swings. Trump already put another Senate seat in play when his feud with Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina led to the Republican incumbent to resign. "Especially with Tillis and Cassidy. No question. Throw in [Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell, [Alaska Sen. Lisa] Murkowski…sometimes [Maine Sen. Susan Collins] and yeah…there's a problem," Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant who follows Hispanic voting trends, told The Independent.
Though it has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1976 and has not elected a Democratic statewide official since 1994, Trump won it by only 9 points in 2016 and about 5.6 points in 2020. It was only in 2024, driven by inflation and a surge of immigration along the U.S.-Mexico border that Trump won Texas by 13.7 percentage points.
Trump did so largely by winning over groups of voters who previously had not voted Republican such as working-class Hispanic voters. "They play a big role, and they swing back and forth, and there's a lot of upwardly mobile Hispanic men, in particular," Steinhauser said, pointing out how many of them are small-business owners and entrepreneurs. "White married suburban women with a college degree, like that's the other demographic that Talarico is going to be competing for," he said.
But Talarico, who is white, also has to make inroads with Black voters after he faced a contentious Democratic primary with Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a congresswoman from Dallas who is Black and whom many African-American voters supported. "There's a large conversation about, you know, what a winning coalition looks like in Texas," one Democratic strategist based in Texas told The Independent on background to speak candidly. The strategist also said that Talarico needed to turn out voters who do not normally turn out. "I think in order to do that, you need to rebuild some bridges with black voters who are disappointed with how the primary went, because those are the people who are going to be dragging their non-voting cousins and their friends and their family members to the polls," they said.
Already, both sides are attempting to dress up their old flaws. Republicans who worked for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the committee itself deleted some of its negative posts on X about Paxton and have sought to attack Talarico as "Talafreako." Talarico's campaign website has embraced the moniker, selling "I'm a Talafreako" t-shirts.
