Support for former President Donald Trump is experiencing a dramatic collapse among voters without a college degree, according to a detailed new analysis from CNN's polling expert Harry Enten. This demographic, which was vital to securing Trump's two previous presidential victories, is now abandoning him in significant numbers ahead of the crucial 2026 midterm elections.
A 23-Point Reversal with a Core Demographic
During the 2024 election, Trump's approval rating with non-college voters was a robust 14 points higher than that of his rival, Kamala Harris. However, recent data reveals a stunning reversal. Trump now faces a nine-point negative approval split with this same group, marking a devastating 23-point swing.
"He is underwater by nine points," Enten stated during a Monday broadcast. "That's a 23-point switcheroo with his base of non-college voters. He is absolutely collapsing with the group of voters that helped put him into the White House."
Broader Republican Party Implications
The analysis indicates this trend is not isolated to Trump alone. The broader Republican party is also seeing a movement away from this demographic, although the GOP currently maintains a slim net-positive approval rating with them. Enten suggests the disconnect stems from unmet promises.
"What we're dealing with is a Donald Trump message that is not actually meeting the reality, and that is why non-college voters have been going away from the president of the United States and going away from Republicans as well," the analyst explained.
Unfulfilled Promises on Manufacturing Jobs
A central pillar of Trump's appeal to working-class, non-college voters was his pledge to revive American manufacturing through aggressive tariffs and trade policies. This promise has largely failed to materialize, potentially driving the decline in support.
Data from 2025 shows the manufacturing sector actually shrank by approximately 70,000 jobs, continuing a longer-term trend of net decline rather than the promised resurgence. This economic reality appears to be clashing with the political rhetoric that once galvanized this voter base.
Erosion Among Other Key Groups
The polling troubles extend beyond non-college voters. Research from the Pew Research Center indicates softening support among evangelical Protestants, another cornerstone of Trump's coalition. A late January survey found that while this bloc remains generally supportive, declining percentages now endorse most of Trump's policy plans, approve of his job performance, or believe he acts ethically in office.
Overall national polling paints a bleak picture for the former president. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week shows only 37 percent of all voters approve of Trump's job performance, with just 39 percent approving of his handling of the economy.
Defiant Rhetoric Amidst Declining Numbers
Despite these clear warning signs in the data, Trump has continued to publicly tout his popularity. Last week, he claimed on his Truth Social platform that his polling numbers were the highest he had "ever received," a statement directly contradicted by his consistently dropping approval ratings throughout his second term.
"Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!" Trump wrote, maintaining an optimistic public stance even as key segments of his political base show signs of significant erosion ahead of the pivotal 2026 midterm elections.
