Despite being predicted to get only 1% of the vote, Conservative candidate Michael Winstanley remains optimistic in the Makerfield by-election, facing Labour's Andy Burnham. The bookies have written him off, but Michael Winstanley remains optimistic he can do better than expected.
A Cheerful Underdog
It's pelting down on the high street of Ashton-in-Makerfield, but Michael Winstanley could not be more cheerful. He is the Conservative candidate for the Makerfield by-election, and emerges from the deluge oozing an unshakable optimism seemingly honed after going toe to toe with Labour for the best part of three decades. Whilst the polls may be firmly stacked against him, it seems he has no intention of stopping now. We duck into a local cafe to escape the downpour as I tell him the bookies have basically written him off. He shrugs, orders two coffees, pays in cash, and makes it clear he intends to go down swinging.
"I have been fighting socialism and the Labour Party all my political life, here in this constituency, and I am not going to give up now," he tells me. This is the Winstanley battle cry that has defined a political career stretching back for nearly 30 years. Yet it's one he still booms out with relish — I think he rather likes being the underdog.
A Local Candidate
"There's one reason why I am standing in this by-election," he says. "I was born here, I was bred here, I represented parts of this constituency on the council. I've been Mayor of Wigan as well." This contest is a personal one. Because while Labour's candidate is the Greater Manchester Mayor with one eye on Downing Street, Winstanley seems to be a local lad through and through. "I've got a plan locally that I want to deliver," he says. "And for me this is all about the Makerfield constituency, and about ensuring we have an authentic Makerfield voice in Parliament." That word — authentic — lies at the heart of his hyper-local pitch. He seems to know every inch of this seat, and throws himself into a chat with one local businesswoman with naked enthusiasm.
Anger Over By-Election Trigger
But this by-election, as everyone in the town knows, was not supposed to happen. It was triggered when Labour MP Josh Simons dramatically stood aside less than two years into the job. He did it so he could clear a path for Andy Burnham to return to Parliament and launch a tilt at the Labour leadership. Winstanley senses real anger on the doorstep about the whole affair. "People are quite resentful of the fact that this by-election has been created in the first place," he says. "This has been created to solve an internal problem within the Labour Party, and people in Makerfield are feeling like they are political pawns in this game." He notes, with no small amount of irony, that Mr Burnham has always insisted being Mayor of Manchester was his dream job.
Polling and Prospects
There is, of course, the small matter of the polling, which I take no joy in reminding him of. A recent poll puts Burnham on 49%, Reform's Robert Kenyon on 39%, and Winstanley languishing on just 1%. At that level of support he could lose his deposit. But if the Tory is daunted, he hides it extremely well. He doesn't even flinch when I, perhaps a tad cruelly, ask "you don't have a chance here do you?" Winstanley insists he is in this race to win it. "Whenever you stand for election you do it with the intention of winning," he reminds me somewhat sternly.
Local Plan and Name Recognition
His local plan is refreshingly straightforward — "regenerating the high streets, cutting crime and antisocial behaviour and cutting congestion and getting off the back of the motorists." Eagle-eyed readers will, of course, have noticed the small matter of his name. Winstanley is a name that crops up all over this part of the world. Libraries, roads, even old ward names and a local college. He finds it quite funny when I display my Southern ignorance and ask if everywhere is just named after him. "I don't think they were named after me, much as I'd like to say that it was," he grins. "It just demonstrates how local I am. Winstanley is an exceptionally popular name here — and it just shows I am the local candidate in this by-election."
A Long History of Fighting
He's no newcomer to this fight. His name first cropped up on the ballot paper in this very seat back in 1997, where he came distant second with 15.4% to Labour's 73.6%. But later that day, at a hustings hosted by the Manchester Evening News at Winstanley College, Michael shows that after all these years he still wears his Conservative heart firmly on his sleeve. When asked at the end of the debate to name his political hero, he — without a second's pause — booms "Mrs T!" The room responds with a chorus of groans but he refuses to back down. Listing her achievements, acclaiming her entrepreneurial spirit and her common sense, Winstanley defies the naysayers. Mrs T "put the great back in Great Britain," he shouts defiantly, clearly enjoying himself.
Loyalty to Leadership
And he's every bit as loyal to the current leadership. "She's got what it takes," he says of Kemi Badenoch as we walk back to his car. "Kemi's made of strong stuff, and you can see that in the polls." Recent polling suggests Mrs Badenoch is seen as the most popular party leader in the country. When I put it to him that Tory, Restore and Reform candidates all standing here simply split the right and hand Burnham the seat, he laughed off the suggestion. Many Tories have pointed out that Reform complaining about splitting the vote "is a bit ironic."
Reform's Perspective
Kenyon is the frontrunner on the right. A spokesman for Reform is characteristically combative. The by-election is a "clear two-horse race between Labour and Reform", they tell me. "A vote for anyone other than Reform is a vote to deliver Open Borders Burnham into No 10 and enact his hard left, anti-Brexit and pro-immigration agenda," the spokesman firmly states.
Support Within the Party
But whilst the polls in the seat may suggest Winstanley isn't winning people over, he is extremely well-liked within his party. Lord Dominic Johnson, a former Conservative Party chairman, calls him "a wonderful man", adding that Winstanley is "very thoughtful and a good old fashioned Conservative. We need more like him." Joining him in heaping praise onto his candidate, the Conservative Party chairman, Kevin Hollinrake MP, declared Michael to be "local to his bootstraps, he understands the damage socialism does to working towns." And he's even won the backing of senior Tory members — with his boss on the powerful national convention, Julian Ellacott, describing him as "a straight-talking, true blue Conservative" who was "never afraid of being outspoken." "His motivations for being involved in politics, and the Conservative Party, are driven solely by a heartfelt belief that conservative solutions improve the lives of individuals and communities," says Stewart Harper — a fellow top Tory. "He's as conviction-based as anyone you'll meet, having seen that Labour does nothing for local communities like Makerfield, the North West, or indeed the UK as a whole," he tells me.
Conclusion
But it is, in truth, extremely unlikely that Michael Winstanley will win on June 18. But it is precisely these Tory holdouts — candidates flying the flag in seats others have written off — that keep Kemi Badenoch's Conservative movement alive. And as he heads off into the rain, you suspect Michael Winstanley would not have it any other way.
