Keir Starmer is facing a local elections bloodbath next week, and the Prime Minister can only hope that his MPs are feeling less 'murderous' than in recent months. Disastrous predictions suggest Labour could lose more than 1,800 councillors in England, while forecasts in the devolved administrations are equally grim. Labour could fall into third place behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in Wales, where it has held power since devolution in 1999. Meanwhile, the Greens could cause a major upset in seats across London that have been held by Labour for decades.
The Liberal Democrats are also on track for their eighth consecutive year of gains, with one party source warning that their sustained local success is like the 'tortoise and the hare.' What happens in the Labour Party in the hours and days after Thursday's polling day will be crucial, and for now, the next steps remain totally unpredictable.
Leadership Challenges Loom
The Prime Minister has long faced challenges to his leadership, with a severe moment of peril in February after Scotland's Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for him to stand down. However, the problem then, which still remains, is that there is no clear successor. Veteran Labour MP John McDonnell, a Jeremy Corbyn ally and Starmer critic, suggested earlier this week that the PM was safe as neither Wes Streeting nor Angela Rayner appear to be in a position to make moves. 'The elections are looking pretty grim,' he said. 'I think Keir will stumble on. I don't think there's a viable challenge to him at the moment.'
Among other MPs, the feeling is one of gloomy sadness but not of any raging determination to oust the PM. One Labour MP from the 2024 intake said: 'This time last week we were reading that the Mandelson evidence session was going to finish Keir off. He got through that, and it doesn't feel like there's a lot of energy behind any other challenger despite what we see in the papers. That'd be different if Andy (Burnham) had a seat, but right now the mood doesn't feel murderous. We've accepted next week will be bad; by the time he faces MPs again, everyone will probably have calmed down.'
Calls for Cool Heads
Another Labour MP elected in 2024 echoed the comments and urged colleagues not to 'panic' amid fears that emotions could take over in the wake of brutal results for the party. 'It's going to be sad, but I don't think that means we plunge into chaos. I don't think we should do anything rash. We should keep cool heads,' they said. 'I just think bad decisions are made when you're panicking. There is no one to succeed the PM at this time. I just think it's important No10 don't panic. I think a big reshuffle would also be destabilising.'
Other MPs believe a major reset of his top team is the only way Mr Starmer can signal a commitment to changing direction. One left-leaning Labour MP admitted the election results will be 'catastrophic' for their party and called for a proper reset of Mr Starmer's top team with more soft-left figures being brought in. 'He has to bring in colleagues from across the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party). The last reshuffle was a total disaster,' they said. However, recent reports have suggested the PM is against the idea of a reshuffle and believes the move would be a distraction.
No10's Relationship with PLP
Another MP said No10's relationship with the PLP has dramatically improved since Morgan McSweeney, Mr Starmer's ex-chief of staff and a lightning rod for criticism, left Downing Street. But they said a proper ministerial shake-up that embraces the historic diversity of the 2024 intake is needed. 'He needs to give them a voice and stop juggling around people who have been there for years,' they said. 'He has the most diverse and most representative intake, and those people need to be around him. It can't just be a reshuffle. It's not about moving seats around on deck.'
They added: 'The wonderful thing is the No10 operation is so much more empathetic. It makes me feel sad that it wasn't done before but gives me hope for the future. I just hope we haven't left it too late.'
Uphill Battle for Direction
If Mr Starmer clings onto power, he faces an uphill battle in deciding the direction of his Government, with some MPs wanting him to move to the left and some to the right. But the trouble with next week's elections is they are unlikely to help give the PM a clear message from voters. Polling expert Luke Tryl said polling is consistently showing these elections 'could well be the nail in the coffin for two-party politics.' 'The era of six to seven party politics is very definitely here,' the executive director of More in Common told The Mirror. 'I think these elections are going to be the proof point for that.'
He added: 'The losses won't just be in one direction. I think it's going to demonstrate that Labour is basically bleeding votes on all sides, to the Greens and Plaid on their left, to Reform on their right. I think that is what is going to be so seismic about the elections. The message from the electorate ends up not being, 'go right' or 'go left', but just 'do better.''
Labour party chair Anna Turley claimed every government finds it difficult in the first couple of years, but that the party could turn it around. She said: 'I see in my community, we're desperate to get the high street back up and running, desperate to build those play parks and get that investment and get more money in people's pockets. And it takes time. I'm proud of the work that Rachel Reeves has done to stabilize the economy, to prioritize the cost of living. The things that we have started to do are starting to be felt. We know it's going to be a challenge because it's difficult for incoming governments, but we share that urgency no more than the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. We're ruthlessly focused on the things that really matter to people, and we've got to get out there and make that case.'
