A new poll on the eve of the Holyrood election has indicated that the Scottish National Party's lead is tightening, as leading experts warn the 'odds are against' John Swinney securing an overall majority. With less than 24 hours until polling stations open for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, research conducted by More in Common suggests that support for Labour may be on the rise.
Poll details
Support for the SNP on both the constituency and regional ballots has decreased by three percentage points from the end of April, now standing at 32% and 23% respectively. On the regional ballot, Mr Swinney's party is only marginally ahead of Reform UK, which is polling at 22% on that ballot and 18% on the constituency ballot. However, the pollsters noted that the 'most notable movement' in the final poll of the campaign came from Labour, whose constituency vote share rose by three points to 20%, while support on the regional ballot increased by four points to 19%.
Expert analysis
The poll, one of several published on the final day of campaigning ahead of the May 7 election, follows comments from elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice, who stated that all the latest research indicates the SNP is 'not quite far enough' ahead with voters to win more than half the seats at Holyrood. SNP leader and Scottish First Minister Mr Swinney has centred his election campaign on winning an overall majority at Holyrood, believing such a result will be crucial to forcing Westminster to grant a second independence referendum. Although Mr Swinney has already pencilled in 2028 for such a vote, Sir John highlighted that key battles in a 'handful of seats' could deny the SNP an overall majority.
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's Breakfast programme on Wednesday, the polling guru said studies show the Tories may 'just hang on to a handful of constituency seats and the Liberal Democrats will just make a handful of gains'. This, combined with the prospect of parties such as the Greens and Reform UK winning in some areas, could mean 'there are just a relatively small number of contests where the other parties are going to hang on, or in one or two instances make a gain, and that is going to stand between the SNP and victory', he said. He added: 'The truth is trying to forecast exactly what is going to happen in individual seats is very, very difficult. If the cookie were to crumble just slightly in the SNP's favour, the Greens just miss out on some of their hopes, then maybe the SNP might still make it. But if the polls are right, the odds are against it and the SNP will need a lot of luck.'
MRP projections
His comments came as a new multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll by YouGov suggested the SNP will win 62 Holyrood seats on Thursday, three short of the 65 needed for an overall majority. YouGov also predicted Reform UK would emerge as the second largest party on 19 seats, two more than Labour on 17. The Scottish Greens could win 16 seats at Holyrood, which would be the party's best-ever result, including taking the Edinburgh Central constituency being contested by the Scottish Constitution, External Affairs and Culture Secretary Angus Robertson. The research further predicted that the Scottish Liberal Democrats could have eight MSPs, double the four they won in 2021, while the Tories could drop from 31 seats to seven, making them the smallest party.
Ipsos poll
Another poll released on Thursday by Ipsos also placed the SNP in the lead, but with the party's support falling back slightly on both constituency and regional ballots. Ipsos Scotland managing director Emily Gray said this 'may dent the SNP's confidence in achieving its hoped-for majority'. While she added that their research found a quarter of voters could still change their minds about who to back, Ms Gray stated: 'The race for second place in voting intentions looks too close to call, with Scottish Labour narrowly ahead of Reform on the constituency vote but Reform outpacing Labour on the regional list vote – where the Greens also appear to be in contention, if they can get their voters to turn out.'
The Ipsos poll, carried out for STV News/ITV Peston, put the SNP comfortably in front on both ballots, with support levels of 35% and 26% on the constituency and regional ballots respectively. Labour were on 20% in the constituency ballot, up by five points from a previous Ipsos poll in March, putting them narrowly ahead of Reform UK on 18%. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives polled 11%. On the regional ballot, Reform UK were in second place on 18%, with the Scottish Greens third on 17% and Labour fourth on 15%. The Liberal Democrats were on 11%, with the Conservatives sixth on 10%.
Ms Gray said: 'This could be the worst-ever performance at a Scottish election for both Labour and the Conservatives if these numbers are replicated on polling day. But with one in four voters still saying they may yet change their mind, all the parties still have something to play for in the final day of campaigning.'
