Marco Rubio Tops Betting Markets as 2028 US Presidential Favourite
Betting markets have shifted dramatically, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio now emerging as the new favourite to win the 2028 presidential election. Questions are intensifying about potential candidates to succeed President Donald Trump, as prediction platforms reflect growing public speculation.
Prediction Markets Show Rubio in the Lead
On Wednesday, the popular prediction market site Kalshi announced via X that Marco Rubio is the "odds favourite to win the 2028 presidency". According to their data, Rubio leads with 19 percent, narrowly ahead of Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, both at 18 percent.
Another platform, Polymarket, reported on Tuesday that Rubio's odds reached an all-time high, though he still trailed Vance by several points. These markets allow users to bet on event outcomes and have seen a surge in popularity, with over $200 million staked on political events through Kalshi and Polymarket in January alone, as per a Washington Post report.
Rubio's Stance and Political Dynamics
Despite the betting trends, Rubio has consistently expressed support for JD Vance, who is widely viewed as the front-runner for the Republican nomination if he chooses to run. In a Vanity Fair interview last year, Rubio stated, "If JD Vance runs for president, he's going to be our nominee, and I'll be one of the first people to support him." He reiterated this sentiment in a Fox News interview, praising Vance's performance as vice president and emphasising his own focus on his role as secretary of state, which restricts his involvement in domestic politics.
Trump's Role and Speculation
President Donald Trump has reportedly begun pitting Vance and Rubio against each other as the 2028 election approaches. According to the Wall Street Journal, at a recent donor event, Trump asked attendees about the two men, with applause for Rubio being louder. However, sources indicate Trump sees this as a game rather than an endorsement, and he has even suggested a joint ticket for Vance and Rubio.
Amidst this, Trump has repeatedly teased running for a third term, which would be unconstitutional, adding another layer of uncertainty to the political landscape. The election is still over two years away, but the early betting and speculation highlight the intense interest and fluid dynamics shaping the race.
