Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emerged as the new favourite on prediction markets for the 2028 US presidential election, according to data from Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi announced on Wednesday that Rubio leads at 19 per cent, with Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom both at 18 per cent. Polymarket also reported that Rubio's odds hit an all-time high, though he remains behind Vance on that platform.
Prediction markets, where users bet on event outcomes, have grown in popularity, with over $200 million staked on political events through Kalshi and Polymarket, as reported by The Washington Post in January. Despite the election being over two years away, speculation about potential candidates is mounting.
Rubio has repeatedly expressed support for Vance, widely seen as the Republican front-runner if he runs. In a Vanity Fair interview, Rubio said, “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him.” He also told Fox News that Vance would be a “great nominee” and noted that his role as secretary of state prevents him from engaging in domestic politics.
However, President Donald Trump has reportedly begun pitting the two against each other. At a recent donor event, Trump asked attendees to applaud for each man, and Rubio received louder applause, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump views the comparison as a game and has expressed a desire for them to run on the same ticket. Trump himself has repeatedly teased running for an unconstitutional third term.
