Reform UK's support could plateau as the party increasingly relies on socially conservative views held by a minority of voters, according to a major study led by psephologist John Curtice. The research, part of the British Social Attitudes report, found that while Reform supporters are more likely to be dissatisfied with politicians and public services, recent recruits are driven more by ideology than discontent.
The study, surveying over 4,600 people across the UK, revealed that 67% of Reform supporters believe migrants are bad for the economy, and 75% think they undermine UK culture—more than double the national averages of 33% and 35%. Additionally, 88% of backers say equal opportunities for transgender people have 'gone too far', compared to 48% of the general public.
Curtice suggested that given the party's focus on such issues, support may plateau in the mid-to-high 20s percentage range. 'Something like 30% looks like not an absolute ceiling, but they are unlikely to rise much above that given the character of the campaign issues they are emphasising,' he said. However, he noted that under the current first-past-the-post system, this could still be enough to win a general election.
The report also highlighted that Reform supporters are disproportionately older, male, and less qualified, with just 9% of graduates backing the party. While dissatisfaction with the NHS and personal finances is common among supporters, the increase in support since 2024 has been substantially driven by ideological appeal rather than discontent with public services.
