A dramatic new opinion poll has revealed a potential political earthquake in Scotland, with Nigel Farage's Reform UK running neck-and-neck with Scottish Labour and threatening to become the largest opposition party in the Scottish Parliament after May's election.
Poll Predicts a Holyrood Shake-Up
The survey, conducted by Savanta for True North Associates, projects that both Reform UK and Scottish Labour are on course to win 18 seats each at Holyrood. This would represent a stunning breakthrough for Reform and a significant setback for Labour, which could remain only the third-largest party in Edinburgh. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is forecast to marginally increase its share to 61 seats, remaining in government with the support of the Scottish Greens.
This surge for Reform appears to be fuelled by a collapse in Conservative support north of the border. The poll suggests the Scottish Tories could be reduced from their current position as the largest opposition group, with 28 seats, to a mere 12 seats. The data indicates that almost half (47 per cent) of voters polled said the performance of the UK Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer made them less likely to vote for Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar.
Leaders Descend on Scotland as Campaign Heats Up
The poll's release coincides with a day of high-profile political visits to Scotland, just four months ahead of the crucial Holyrood election. Sir Keir Starmer is expected to make a major announcement on clean energy during his trip, following the confirmation of a massive new offshore wind farm off the coast of East Lothian.
Meanwhile, Nigel Farage will be in Edinburgh to unveil his party's Scottish leader, with former Tory minister Lord Offord tipped for the role. In a separate visit, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will attack the Scottish Government's recent Budget, accusing the SNP of raising taxes and benefits to the detriment of hardworking Scots.
Implications for the Devolved Nations
The potential for Reform UK to form the principal opposition in Scotland carries profound implications for UK politics. With other polls suggesting the party is also on course for gains in Wales, Nigel Farage's party could lead the opposition in two of the three devolved administrations after the May elections.
Fergus Mutch, managing partner of True North Advisors, analysed the findings. 'With four months to go until the Holyrood election, this first Scotland-wide political poll of 2026 shows that Reform UK is continuing to disrupt Scottish politics,' he said. 'Scottish Labour face a major challenge from this continued surge... Anas Sarwar now faces a battle to be the main opposition, with his fortunes tied to how the public rate his party at Westminster.'
While the SNP will be reassured by its continued lead, Mutch noted there is 'no sign that it is building much in the way of momentum' heading into the final campaigning period. The political landscape across Britain's devolved nations appears poised for a significant realignment, with Reform UK positioned as a potent new force challenging the established party hierarchy.
