Recent polling has placed Reform UK, led in Scotland by former Conservative peer Malcolm Offord, neck and neck with Scottish Labour for second place ahead of the Holyrood elections next Thursday. The Scottish National Party (SNP) maintains a comfortable lead, with First Minister John Swinney warning that Reform poses an acute threat to Scottish self-government.
Speaking to the Guardian, Swinney said the advent of Reform could bring a sizeable number of MSPs who want to abolish the Scottish Parliament. He also raised the possibility of a future Reform UK government at Westminster attempting to abolish Holyrood. SNP strategists are keen to impress upon voters what is at stake in the election, though opponents suggest Swinney is talking up Reform to deflect from his government's record.
While Reform's Scotland manifesto does not propose abolishing the parliament, it pledges to reduce the number of MSPs and introduce a mandatory ten-yearly review of devolution powers. However, the Scottish Election Study, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, found that abolishing the Scottish parliament was the most popular constitutional change among Reform supporters, and support for this option had doubled among Conservative voters.
Swinney also noted that after 7 May, centre-left nationalist parties aspiring to leave the UK—SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Sinn Féin—are expected to be in government simultaneously in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland for the first time. He argued this would force the UK government to recognise the consequences of devolution. He confirmed that discussions with Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin are already under way, and defended collaboration with Sinn Féin by citing the Good Friday Agreement.
