Reform UK Set to Surge as Main Opposition in Scottish Parliament Election
A groundbreaking new poll indicates that Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on track to become the principal opposition party in Scotland following May's Holyrood election. This dramatic shift comes amid a severe collapse in support for both Labour and the Conservatives north of the border.
Poll Predicts Seismic Shift in Scottish Politics
The detailed MRP survey, conducted by Stonehaven—the firm that delivered the most accurate forecast for the 2024 UK general election—projects Reform will capture 25 seats in the Scottish Parliament. This represents an extraordinary rise for a party that held no seats after the 2021 election and has gained only one since.
In a clear sign of political polarisation mirroring trends across the UK, the Scottish National Party is forecast to win enough seats to achieve an outright majority. This would mark the first time the SNP has held a parliamentary majority in 15 years, since the late Alex Salmond led the party to 69 seats in 2011.
Conservatives and Labour Face Major Losses
The poll confirms the Scottish Conservatives are poised to be the election's biggest losers, projected to shed 24 seats. This collapse would see them fall from being the largest opposition party to joint-smallest in Holyrood.
Scottish Labour is also set for significant losses, forecast to drop seven seats and remain only the third largest party. The survey suggests the SNP will benefit from tactical voting by opponents of Reform, who are expected to back nationalists over Labour candidates.
Leadership Crisis Deepens for Labour
If these projections materialise, they are likely to send shockwaves through the Labour Party. Combined with anticipated dismal results in Welsh and English council elections on the same day, the outcome could amplify calls for Sir Keir Starmer's resignation.
Last week, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar became the most senior party figure to publicly call for Sir Keir to step down. Sarwar expressed concerns that Starmer's unpopularity across the UK was damaging Labour's prospects in Scotland, particularly following the controversy surrounding Lord Peter Mandelson's appointment as US ambassador.
SNP Navigates Legal Controversy Amid Campaign
The poll emerges as First Minister John Swinney faces mounting controversy over the court case involving former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell—Nicola Sturgeon's husband—who stands accused of embezzling almost £460,000 from party funds between August 2010 and January 2023.
Newly released documents reveal Scotland's most senior law officer, Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain KC, provided Swinney with details about the allegations against Murrell nearly a year ago. The Scottish Conservatives have accused Swinney of receiving "secret information" about what they describe as a "highly sensitive" case.
Murrell, 61, had been scheduled to appear at Glasgow's High Court for a preliminary hearing on February 20, but this was subsequently moved to May 25 at the High Court in Edinburgh.
Historical Context and Political Landscape
The SNP initially formed a power-sharing agreement with the Greens following the 2021 election but has governed as a minority administration since that coalition collapsed in 2024. The party's parliamentary strength fell to 63 seats under Nicola Sturgeon in 2016, forcing her to operate a minority government.
This new poll represents the first projection suggesting the SNP could regain an outright majority under John Swinney's leadership, potentially reshaping Scotland's political landscape for years to come.
