The Liberal candidate for Nepean, Anthony Marsh, was observed distributing how-to-vote cards on Saturday as voters took to the ballot box in a pivotal Victorian byelection. This contest on the Mornington Peninsula is widely regarded as a preview of what to expect when the entire state goes to the polls in November.
According to ABC election analyst Casey Briggs, Marsh is the favourite to win the seat of Nepean. However, the Liberal candidate cannot even count on his own vote, as his residential address falls outside the electorate boundaries despite living in the suburb of Mount Martha, which is partially included in the seat.
Marsh dismissed concerns about his residency, stating, "People don't care where my street sign is – I've been the mayor of this electorate three times over the past five years. I show up every day to work for this community."
With the Labor Party opting not to field a candidate in this byelection, the main contenders are One Nation's Darren Hercus and independent candidate Tracee Hutchison. After casting his vote, Hercus described the race as tight, noting a mixed response from voters who are frustrated with unfulfilled promises.
"We've had a few Liberal voters come over to us for frustrations they've been feeling with their own party," Hercus said. "I think that people want change. The two-party government system has let a lot of people down."
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson campaigned alongside Hercus but was absent on polling day. Hercus acknowledged her influence, stating, "People will vote for her rather than me. She's incredible … she just keeps going."
Independent candidate Tracee Hutchison, after casting her vote, expressed that the area has been overlooked and let down by major parties for decades. "I am a very proud Rosebud girl," she told reporters. "I am putting myself forward as someone who is of this place, who cares deeply about this place." With no Labor candidate, Hutchison believes many voters are seeking an alternative, and she aims to represent and unify both sides of politics.
The byelection was triggered by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. The Liberal Party has held the seat since its inception, except for a four-year period when it fell to Labor. A strong showing by One Nation could reinforce national polling trends and the South Australian election result, potentially signalling trouble for the Liberals in the upcoming November state election, according to Benjamin Moffitt, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University.
"If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal party," Moffitt said.
Victoria's opposition leader, Jess Wilson, handed out how-to-vote cards alongside Marsh and emphasised the importance of the byelection for her prospects of becoming premier. "We don't take anything for granted," Wilson said. "We're the only party down here who are running on a plan to deliver the Rosebud hospital, to fix the roads, to put more cops on the beat down here."
The Nepean electorate encompasses wealthy postcodes such as Sorrento, Portsea, and Flinders, as well as lower socioeconomic areas like Capel Sound, formerly known as Rosebud West. Although the Mornington Peninsula is officially part of metropolitan Melbourne, it lacks comparable services, with public transport and the planned redevelopment of Rosebud hospital being key issues for local residents.
