Pauline Hanson's One Nation party is experiencing a surge in support, with recent polls showing its primary vote doubling since the May federal election. The latest Essential poll in September placed One Nation at 13%, ahead of the Greens on 11% and more than double its election result of 6.4%. This rise has coincided with a decline in the Coalition's vote, which fell from 31.8% at the election to 27% in the same poll.
One Nation's Victorian president, Warren Pickering, claimed the party has 'never been more appetite' and predicted the Liberals would become a 'minor party' within five to seven years if they do not change direction. He said it was 'inevitable' that One Nation would win lower-house seats in Victoria, where it currently holds only one upper-house seat. However, a Victorian Liberal spokesperson denied any preference deal discussions with One Nation.
Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce linked One Nation's rise to a global phenomenon of far-right populism, citing Nigel Farage's Reform UK and Donald Trump in the US. However, One Nation's support is far below Reform UK, which polls at 31% in Britain. Joyce noted that Australia was 'last to this party' of challenges to the conservative side of politics.
One Nation claims a 60% increase in paid-up members since the election and is establishing local branches, including in Tamworth, in Joyce's electorate. Dr Jill Sheppard, a politics lecturer at ANU, said the party is 'objectively growing in popularity' and compared its trajectory to that of the Greens two decades ago.
Analysis of Essential polls shows One Nation's support is strongest in Queensland (15%), among over-55s, and outside capital cities. It polls just 7% among 18-34 year olds, suggesting its anti-immigration and anti-climate action agenda does not resonate with younger voters. Sheppard said One Nation does not pose an 'existential' threat to the Coalition due to lack of donor support, but would cause it to 'think hard' about its pitch at the next election.
The rise of One Nation has exposed a split within the Liberal party, with conservative MP Andrew Hastie citing 'fragmentation' of the right-wing vote as a reason for campaigning for a nationalist platform. Moderate Liberal Andrew Bragg warned against adopting One Nation's policies, while the party's support among women and younger voters remains low.
