The Makerfield by-election will take place later this week, with voters in the north-west of England potentially shaping the near future of UK politics. Labour candidate Andy Burnham is poised to challenge Sir Keir Starmer's leadership if he wins a parliamentary seat.
Background of the By-Election
The by-election was triggered in May when the previous Makerfield MP, Josh Simons, resigned his seat to allow Mr Burnham the opportunity to return to Westminster. Mr Simons had won the seat in 2024, securing a 5,399 majority over Reform UK during the general election.
Fourteen candidates are standing for election this time, and the local area has been crowded with MPs, journalists, and activists in recent weeks ahead of the vote.
When Is the By-Election Taking Place?
The Makerfield by-election will be held on Thursday, 18 June. Polls will be open from 7am to 10pm, and voters must bring a form of ID to cast their vote.
When Will We Know the Results?
Once polls close, the count will begin shortly after 10pm on Thursday evening. The results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning, likely around 4 or 5am.
Who Are the Candidates?
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is the prominent name on the ballot. Mr Burnham previously served as the Labour MP for Leigh from 2001 until 2017, holding several cabinet positions, including Secretary of State for Health from 2009 to 2010. He would be required to step down as Mayor if elected.
Robert Kenyon is Reform UK's candidate. Mr Kenyon, a plumber and army reservist, also contested the seat in the 2024 general election. His social media activity has come under scrutiny, with allegations of deleted posts containing sexist, violent, and homophobic messages.
The Restore Britain party has announced local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd, 53, as its candidate in Makerfield. Recent polls suggest Restore Britain could split the right-wing vote, aiding Mr Burnham's victory.
Other candidates include:
- Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats
- Count Binface, Count Binface Party
- Dan Clarke, Libertarian Party
- John Alfred Dyer, Independent
- Ed Gemmell, Climate Party
- Paul Richard Gould, Independent
- Alan 'Howlin' Laud Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
- Robert Pownall, Independent
- Sarah Wakefield, Green Party
- Peter Ward, Rejoin EU
- Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party
What Are the Latest Polls and Odds Saying?
According to recent polls, Labour and Andy Burnham have the edge over Reform UK in a tight race. Polling by Opinium for campaign group Forward Democracy shows Labour at 46%, Reform on 41%, and Restore Britain on 7%. No other party is likely to keep its deposit, with the Green Party on 3%, the Conservatives on 2%, and the Liberal Democrats on 1%.
Betting companies also favour Labour, with odds shortening on Mr Burnham in recent days and drifting on right-wing parties. Latest odds have Mr Burnham at 1/4, Reform at 3/1, and Restore Britain around 20/1.
