In two weeks, voters in Makerfield will head to the polls for a by-election triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons. The outcome could have significant implications for the national political landscape, potentially determining the next prime minister.
The race is expected to be tight between Labour candidate Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon. Polls show Burnham leading by just three points. If Burnham wins, he may return to parliament to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. A Reform UK victory could trigger a leadership contest among Labour MPs like Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner, and signal a broader shift away from Labour in its former strongholds.
Other candidates include Rebecca Shepherd from Rupert Lowe’s Restore UK, which appears to be splitting the right-wing vote, and a Green Party candidate despite calls for them to step aside. The first constituency poll placed Burnham ahead, but Reform UK performed strongly in recent local elections, winning every ward in the constituency.
Robert Kenyon, a local plumber, has faced controversy over past online comments, including sexist remarks and support for Russia’s invasion of Crimea. Reform UK dismissed these as “locker room banter,” arguing Kenyon is a straight-talking candidate for ordinary people. Burnham has framed his candidacy as a chance to “change Labour” and focus on neglected communities.
