Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski wiped away tears as her party suffered a humiliating loss at the Farrer by-election on Saturday. The Liberal Party vote crashed to just 10 per cent, down 33 per cent from Sussan Ley's primary vote recorded just one year ago.
Butkowski, flanked by Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, addressed her supporters after the landslide loss as she struggled to contain her heartache. 'It really has been the best experience of my life and I don't regret a thing,' she said. 'I think we all knew it was going to be a tough fight but it is something that I'm willing to continue to fight for.'
On Saturday night, One Nation's David Farley led the two-candidate-preferred vote with around 58 per cent, ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe on approximately 42 per cent. The result is a stunning loss for the Coalition. The seat was held by former Opposition Leader Ley for 25 years.
Farrer, which covers roughly 126,563 square kilometres in the far southwestern region of NSW, has been in Coalition hands for 77 years since David Fairbairn was elected to the newly created seat in 1949.
Butkowski said in her post-election speech that the by-election result was a wake-up call to the Coalition and the Labor Party. 'Today, the voters of Farrer decided to send the major parties a message,' she said. 'With the Coalition, in recent times, we likely haven't been good enough.'
Taylor also addressed supporters in a subdued Liberal party HQ in Albury. 'It's been a tough campaign... but the true Liberals are here and fighting,' he said. 'The by-election was always going to be a mountain to climb... we need to take away hard lessons from this. For too long we have been a party of convenience not of conviction.' He also referenced the break-up of the Coalition under Ley's leadership, crediting that for the party's failure. 'Moving forward, we need to take our medicine and we have to be honest in our discussion with the Australian people,' Taylor said.
Ley wasn't involved in the Liberal Party campaign, but congratulated Farley and One Nation. 'I know David will feel the same sense of honour and responsibility. I pay tribute to Raissa Butkowski for her efforts over the past two months,' Ley said in a statement on Saturday evening.
One Nation's stunning victory showed how the Liberal Party has struggled to retain its voter base in country NSW. As of 9.30pm on Saturday, Liberal candidate Butkowski had only managed to get 11.5 per cent of the vote which was a massive -31.9 change from the 2025 Federal election. Even back then, Ley won while getting nearly nine per cent less of the vote than in her previous election win.
Losing Farrer to One Nation is considered a watershed moment for the party. The result showed that the Coalition is struggling to manage its broad base, with voters in regional areas clearly fed up with the party's internal conflicts and its inability to address issues important to them. The by-election was a major test for the new Liberal leader Taylor, following the resignation of Ley, and the result showed the party is still in a downward spiral.
It also shows that the 'shy Pauline voter' phenomenon is a thing of the past. Aussies are no longer afraid to admit their fondness for the polarising Hanson who has long divided voters over her anti-immigration views. The Farrer by-election could have serious implications for the next general election.
Independent candidate, Michelle Milthorpe also fought back tears as she thanked supporters on Saturday night. She lifted her primary vote slightly from 2025 but still fell well short of One Nation, finishing with around 40 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote. 'Thank you so much for your generosity. To every volunteer who stood out the front of the hub and had conversations, to everybody who went in and talked about this movement to people,' she said. Milthorpe acknowledged the result, referring to deep frustration within the community. 'One Nation won tonight because people in our community are rightly fed up. The next two years will be a test for One Nation,' she said. 'They will successfully reflect the anger we feel out here. But that is the easy part.'
