Labour Urged to Heed Progressive Voters Amid Fears of London 'Political Earthquake'
Senior Labour figures in London have issued a stark warning to the party, cautioning that a surge in Green support could trigger a "political earthquake" in the capital's May elections. Exclusive data shared privately among politicians suggests Labour risks plummeting from first to fourth place in London, losing control of all but two councils, while the Greens soar to first place, potentially securing nine boroughs.
Data Predicts Dramatic Shift in Council Control
A new forecasting technique, which builds on MRP modelling and accurately predicted recent byelection outcomes, indicates that Labour, currently holding 21 London boroughs, could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens. The modelling, developed by the non-political data firm Bombe, forecasts that Labour would retain outright majorities only in Newham and Redbridge councils if current trends hold.
According to the analysis, the Greens could also capture Lewisham, Waltham Forest, Greenwich, Wandsworth, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hounslow, and Brent if they field candidates in every ward. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are projected to increase from five to six councils, gaining Barnet, while Reform UK would take Barking and Dagenham, winning 132 seats across London and becoming the largest party in Havering.
Senior Figures Sound Alarm Over Progressive Voter Defections
A senior London Labour figure emphasised the urgency, stating, "The government needs to demonstrate that they're not taking liberal, progressive voters in the capital for granted." Another added, "It's going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swathes of voters on our progressive flank then we're doomed. We need to start listening to them."
London Mayor Sadiq Khan recently highlighted that Labour faces an "existential threat" in parts of the country, warning, "Without a change in course, we risk a repeat of losing large Labour strongholds, like London, just as we did in the 2000s in Scotland. If we don't unite progressives, we risk opening the door to the darkness and division of Reform."
Modelling Details and Potential Seat Losses
The gradient-boosted regression modelling (GBRM) utilised by Bombe incorporates actual election results and polling data from Deltapoll, using an AI platform to predict voting behaviour over five years. The forecast suggests Labour could lose more than half of its council seats across London—totalling 741—with the Greens picking up 530, the Conservatives 77, and the Liberal Democrats 72. Labour is being squeezed on multiple fronts, including challenges from pro-Gaza independents.
Nine other boroughs would result in no overall control, with the Greens as the largest party in four, Labour in two, and one each for Reform and the Conservatives. In Southwark, the Lib Dems and Labour would tie in seats, while Westminster would see a tie between the Tories and Greens.
Internal Criticism and Calls for Policy Shifts
A Labour source criticised the party's current direction, saying, "A slow handclap for those self-appointed strategic geniuses who ridicule Labour values and think we can afford to sacrifice our core vote by mimicking the performative cruelty of Suella Braverman. The dead end of McSweeneyism must be abandoned before it's too late. When Labour focuses on the cost of living we can start to win back the progressive defectors we've lost and unite the coalition we need."
One London Labour MP stressed the need to address voter concerns, noting, "We can't dismiss voters' concerns and need to work hard to rebuild trust. We have some incredible Labour councils and councillors doing amazing work in their communities. That work risks being undone if Labour nationally doesn't start addressing worries of progressive voters around policies like welfare cuts, the language government uses on immigration and the response to Gaza."
Expert Analysis and Green Party Challenges
Tony Travers, a professor of local government at the London School of Economics, commented that if Bombe's modelling proves accurate, Labour is on course for a "political earthquake" in the local elections. He stated, "It would profoundly shock London Labour MPs. The national party has taken London for granted for years and invested all their efforts on targeting Reform-prone areas, and they now have this huge flank exposed on their left."
Mike Joslin, chief executive of Bombe, explained, "Labour is facing wipeout in London in the face of a Green tidal wave. The data shows that Labour's core voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza, social equality issues and Brexit. They want someone that shares their values. Alongside the Green wave, inner-city working-class voters are angry with Labour for not making them better off, and you will see some wards going Reform. Many places are now five-way marginals."
Joslin, who has previously provided data for Labour figures including Keir Starmer and Sadiq Khan, added, "The Greens, if they can get the candidates, could capitalise and win a number of London councils. This could change the landscape of London government for a generation." However, the Greens face a significant hurdle in selecting enough candidates to contest every council seat, which is necessary to achieve the modelled results.
Concerns Over Long-Term Implications
A second Labour MP accused party leaders of treating the Green threat with a dismissive attitude akin to "student politics," warning, "The chaos that will come from London descending into Green madness with no housing being built and no investment in social care will be catastrophic for the poorest people." This underscores the high stakes for Labour as it navigates a complex electoral landscape ahead of the May polls.
