Senior Labour figures in London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, with new data suggesting the party could drop to fourth place in May's local elections amid a surge in support for the Greens. The modelling, from data firm Bombe, predicts Labour could lose control of all but two of its 21 London boroughs, with the Greens taking flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth.
According to the forecast, Labour would be left with outright majorities in only Newham and Redbridge. The party could lose 741 council seats across the capital, while the Greens would gain 530. The Conservatives could gain Barnet, and Reform UK could take Barking and Dagenham, winning 132 seats overall. The Greens would also take Lewisham, Waltham Forest, Greenwich, Wandsworth, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hounslow and Brent if they run candidates in every ward.
Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, described the threat as 'existential', warning that without a change of course Labour risked losing strongholds like it did in Scotland in the 2000s. A senior Labour figure said: 'It's going to be a total catastrophe for us in London.' Tony Travers of the London School of Economics called it a 'political earthquake' that would profoundly shock London Labour MPs.
The data suggests Labour could be squeezed on four fronts, also facing challenges from pro-Gaza independents. A Labour source criticised the party's strategy, saying: 'The dead end of McSweeneyism must be abandoned before it's too late.' The Greens, however, face a challenge in fielding enough candidates to achieve the modelled result.
According to Bombe's model, Labour could lose more than half of its council seats in Camden, the prime minister's own constituency, leading to no overall control. Nine other boroughs would go to no overall control, with the Greens the largest party in four. The Liberal Democrats would gain 72 seats, while the Tories would gain 77.
