Analysis: As scandal rocks the Maine Democrat, another seat in the heart of Trump country may be do-or-die for the party. The former swing state has turned scarlet red, but now Democrats feel they have a chance in the Hawkeye State thanks to Trump's tariffs.
Scandal in Maine
Over the weekend, Democrats received an unwelcome present when The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times reported that Graham Platner, the presumptive nominee in Maine, had sent sexually explicit text messages to multiple women early in his marriage. The reporting immediately put Platner's backers on the defensive, partly because he is now the likely candidate to challenge Senator Susan Collins, the sole Republican up in a state that voted for a Democrat for president in 2024. Collins is the white whale for Democrats, given her massive crossover appeal. However, as The Independent reported last year, few Democrats wanted to run against the veteran Collins. Last month, Governor Janet Mills, 78, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's preferred candidate, ended her campaign.
That means Democrats are all but stuck with Platner — and almost every path for Democrats to go from 47 Senate seats to 51 this November requires them to flip Maine. Former Governor Roy Cooper is cleaning house in North Carolina against his Republican opponent, and former Representative Mary Peltola is putting up a surprisingly solid performance against Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska. Former Senator Sherrod Brown faces an uphill but not impossible battle against Senator Jon Husted in Ohio.
Iowa's Importance
But other than those races, Maine is the linchpin. Despite the hype, James Talarico is not guaranteed to beat Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas, meaning Democrats must make up the math elsewhere. That makes Tuesday evening's primary in Iowa even more important. On the surface, Iowa should not be in the conversation for Democrats. It had one of the biggest swings from Barack Obama to Donald Trump in 2016 and has stayed firmly red since. Trump also nominated its popular governor, Terry Branstad, to be his ambassador to China in his first term. However, the state's economy has taken a beating, partly due to Trump's tariffs, which at one point led to China not buying soybeans. Trump's war in Iran has also caused fertilizer prices to spike. Democrats have highlighted how Trump's 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' put the state's rural hospitals at risk, gaining further attention when Senator Joni Ernst said at an event 'we all are going to die.'
Ernst announced last year she would not seek re-election, and almost immediately, Republicans and Trump coalesced around three-term Representative Ashley Hinson. Additionally, Kim Reynolds, who has served as governor since 2017 when Branstad went to Beijing, is not seeking re-election. Her unpopularity has Democrats thinking Rob Sand, the state's auditor, can flip the mansion. But the real fight is in the Democratic Senate primary.
The Democratic Primary Contest
Readers of The Independent's daily politics newsletter Inside Washington might remember our profile of Josh Turek, the Paralympian basketball player running for office. His main argument is that as a state legislator, he flipped a district that voted for Trump. He also received the endorsement of Tom Harkin, Iowa's last Democratic senator. On the other side is Zach Wahls. Wahls shot to fame in 2011 when he testified against the legislature's attempt to ban same-sex marriage. Nine years later, he won a seat in the state senate and has the endorsement of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). He has pledged not to back Schumer for Democratic leader if elected.
That leads to Turek's main problem. Schumer's leadership PAC cut Turek a $5,000 check for the primary and an additional one for the general election. But Turek has pointed out that Wahls represents a largely Democratic district in the state Senate and has not run against a Republican. His endorsement from Warren might hurt him in the general as much as it might help him in the primary.
Conclusion
Even with all this fracas, Democrats would still have to contend with the fact Iowa is still Trump country that voted for him by about the same margin as Texas. But as their hopes to flip Maine seem uncertain, they might need to invest their hopes in the heartland just to be safe.
