The by-election result in Gorton and Denton has delivered a devastating and bitter blow to Keir Starmer's Labour Party, serving as a grim sign of trouble ahead for the already demoralised political force. Labour MPs, who have been jittery at the growing threat from Reform on the right, now face a formidable new challenge from the Greens on the left, as Keir Starmer's assertion that only his party could effectively beat Nigel Farage's movement has been starkly undermined.
A Stunning Upset for Labour's Campaign Machine
For weeks, Labour insiders had been darkly muttering that a third-place finish would spell disaster for Keir Starmer, who only recently survived a fierce battle for his political life earlier this month. In response, Labour threw the kitchen sink at this critical by-election, deploying its well-oiled campaign machine that had delivered a landslide general election victory back in 2024. Almost every prominent Labour figure had visited Gorton and Denton recently, some on multiple occasions, with popular politicians like Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner actively knocking on doors. Even Prime Minister Keir Starmer made an unusual visit on Monday, highlighting the high stakes involved.
The Greens Emerge as a Credible Left-Wing Alternative
Despite Labour's intense efforts, it was Hannah Spencer of the Green Party who pulled off a stunning upset, securing a comfortable majority in a seat that Labour had won with 13,413 votes just eighteen months prior. This outcome is particularly damaging because Mr Starmer has consistently cast Labour as the primary anti-Reform party, yet voters in Gorton and Denton chose the Greens as their alternative to Nigel Farage and his political mob. A similar pattern was observed in a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly last year, where Plaid Cymru managed to beat Reform and push Labour into third place, further eroding Labour's claim to being the sole viable opposition.
While it is generally unwise to extrapolate by-election results to predict general election outcomes, as a Labour source noted that the Greens may struggle to mobilise such support on a national scale, perception in politics matters immensely. The Greens have demonstrated a clear capability to defeat Reform and offer a compelling left-wing alternative to Labour. Moreover, this victory shows that Zack Polanski's party can win outside of its traditional southern strongholds, striking a significant blow to Labour in its very heartlands.
Heightened Stakes for Upcoming Elections
The implications of this defeat are profound, as upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales, and local councils across England have long been viewed as moments of extreme danger for the Prime Minister. With Labour MPs now fearing threats from both Reform on the right and the Greens on the left, the political stakes could not be higher. Governments of all stripes typically struggle in by-elections, as voters often use them to deliver a bloody nose without risking wider chaos, but this result amplifies existing anxieties within Labour ranks.
The Lingering Andy Burnham Problem
Compounding the crisis is the persistent Andy Burnham problem. Mr Starmer played a direct role in blocking the Greater Manchester Mayor from standing in this by-election, and he will now face intense recriminations over whether Burnham could have secured a victory for Labour. That decision was always a lose-lose scenario for the Prime Minister: allowing Burnham to stand would have risked losing the Greater Manchester mayoralty and invited a figure with naked leadership ambitions into Westminster. However, as critics have pointed out, the blame for that contentious decision now rests squarely on Mr Starmer's shoulders, adding to the mounting pressures on his leadership.
In summary, the Greens' shocking triumph in Gorton and Denton not only undermines Keir Starmer's strategic positioning but also signals a potential realignment in British politics, where Labour must contend with resurgent challenges from both flanks as it navigates a precarious path forward.
