As the final full day of campaigning unfolds in the Gorton and Denton byelection, a fresh poll has emerged, indicating that the race is too close to call. The survey, conducted by Opinium for Byline Times and Forward Democracy, shows a dead heat among all voters, with the Greens and Labour tied at 28% and Reform UK trailing slightly at 27%. Among those likely to vote, the Greens hold a marginal lead at 30%, compared to Labour and Reform UK, both at 28%.
Polling Data Highlights a Tight Contest
This marks the second poll in recent days suggesting the Greens are ahead. An earlier Omnisis poll from last week placed the Greens at 33%, Reform UK at 29%, and Labour at 26%. However, constituency polling can be erratic, and most of these leads fall within the margin of error. The only reliable conclusion is that the outcome remains unpredictable, with no clear frontrunner emerging as voters head to the polls.
Breakdown of the Two-Party System
Traditionally a safe Labour seat, Gorton and Denton now sees two insurgent parties, Reform UK and the Greens, competing strongly. This byelection underscores a significant shift in British politics, where the dominance of the two-party system has completely broken down. We are entering an era of multi-party politics, with challenger parties gaining ground and reshaping electoral dynamics.
Tactical Voting Could Swing the Result
The Opinium poll also reveals a solid finding regarding tactical voting. According to Adam Bienkov's report for Byline Times, anti-Reform voters are significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour. Specifically, 66% of Labour and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would consider switching to the Greens if it meant defeating Reform UK, compared to just 41% of Green and Lib Dem voters who would switch to Labour to counter Nigel Farage's party.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, commented on the findings, stating, "The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign." This insight will likely be a topic of discussion at Prime Minister's Questions today.
Today's Political Agenda
At noon, Keir Starmer will face Kemi Badenoch at PMQs, where the byelection results and polling data may be addressed. In the afternoon, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is scheduled for a visit to discuss the Ofgem price cap announcement. Additionally, the government is set to publish its courts and tribunals bill, adding to a busy day in Westminster.
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