Five incumbent Republican members of Congress who underperformed President Donald Trump in their districts in 2024 now face heightened risk as Trump’s approval rating hits a new low. Democrats, needing to flip five seats to regain control of the House, see these lawmakers as prime targets.
Rep. Chuck Edwards of North Carolina, who replaced scandal-plagued Madison Cawthorn, won his district by 9.6 points while Trump carried it by 13.5. His low profile and backlash over Hurricane Helene have made him vulnerable, especially with Democrat Jamie Ager running and a strong Senate bid by former Governor Roy Cooper expected to boost turnout.
In Wisconsin, Rep. Derrick Van Orden has drawn controversy for berating Senate pages and making inflammatory comments. He won by only 2.7 points in a district Trump took by 7.5. Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who lost narrowly in 2024, is running again with endorsements from the Blue Dog Coalition and Senator Bernie Sanders.
Florida’s Cory Mills, a two-term Republican, faces a House Ethics Committee investigation into campaign finance violations, misuse of resources, and dating violence. He underperformed Trump by half a point, and his scandals provide ample ammunition for the eventual Democratic nominee.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, also of Florida, has collaborated with Democrats on stock trading bans but sparked controversy by inviting a Russian delegation to the Capitol. She underperformed Trump by 3.5 points, and her district’s shifting demographics could make her a target.
Finally, Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, a perennial Democratic target, won by just 2 points in a district Trump carried by 4. With a moderate record and a strong Democratic challenger, his seat remains competitive as Trump’s approval weakens.
