Five Underperforming Republicans Teeter on Election Cliff Edge
As former President Donald Trump's approval ratings continue their dramatic nosedive, five incumbent Republican members of Congress find themselves in particularly precarious positions. These lawmakers, who significantly underperformed Trump in their respective districts during the 2024 presidential election, now face the very real prospect of being swept away in what Democrats hope will be a blue-wave midterm election in 2026.
The Precarious House Mathematics
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives with 217 seats compared to the Democrats' 213, following several deaths and resignations. This slim margin means Democrats need to gain just five seats to reach the magic number of 218 required for control. While Democrats will naturally target Republican-held seats in districts that voted for President Kamala Harris, they may find even greater opportunities in districts where Trump won but the Republican representative underperformed the former president's vote share.
The danger for Republicans extends even to those in ostensibly "safe" seats, as Trump's declining popularity creates unexpected vulnerabilities. Sometimes, Republicans in these districts take their partisan lean for granted and fail to match presidential performance levels. The Independent's analysis utilizes both the Cook Political Report's House Race ratings and Split Ticket's Wins Above Replacement rating to identify the most vulnerable incumbents.
The Five Most Vulnerable Republicans
Representative Chuck Edwards (R-North Carolina)
Representative Chuck Edwards maintains a deliberately low profile, having been backed by Republicans in his 2022 primary challenge to controversial former congressman Madison Cawthorn specifically to avoid embarrassment. However, Edwards, who represents Western North Carolina including the college town of Asheville, has faced criticism at town hall meetings within his district.
While Trump won the district by 13.5 percentage points in 2024, Edwards managed only a 9.6-point victory margin. Surprisingly, the district actually trended slightly to the left, likely influenced by the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Democrat Jamie Ager is now challenging Edwards, and if Trump's approval remains weak, he could potentially steal this seat. Additionally, North Carolina will host a marquee Senate race featuring former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who leads in every poll against former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Cooper's strength could provide enough coattail effect to push Ager over the finish line.
Representative Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisconsin)
If Edwards suffers from anonymity, Representative Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin faces the exact opposite problem. The pugnacious congressman has landed in numerous controversies, including verbally berating Senate pages for taking photographs under the Capitol Rotunda. When questioned about whether Congress simply followed Trump's marching orders during the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" vote, Van Orden responded, "We're not a bunch of little b****es around here, OK?" only to ultimately fold and vote for the legislation.
When someone tweeted about millions losing healthcare, school meals, and food assistance, Van Orden simply responded "YES!" This combative approach has made him uniquely vulnerable. Wisconsin's 3rd District represents the classic type of area that traditionally voted Democratic before breaking for Trump. While Trump won the Western Wisconsin district by 7.5 percentage points, Van Orden barely defeated waitress Rebecca Cooke by just 2.7 points. Cooke is mounting another challenge in 2026, having secured endorsements from both the moderate Blue Dog coalition and socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Representative Cory Mills (R-Florida)
The two-term Republican congressman from Florida won a seat that was gerrymandered for the GOP in 2022. While Mills was awarded a Bronze Star for heroism in Iraq, fellow servicemembers have disputed whether he actually saved lives. A judge also issued a restraining order against him for continuing to message her for "protection against dating violence."
Mills currently faces a House Ethics Committee investigation examining potential violations of campaign finance laws, misuse of congressional resources, and engagement in dating violence. Although he underperformed Trump by only about half a percentage point, his numerous scandals provide whichever Democrat wins the primary with ample material to use against him in the general election campaign.
Representative Anna Paulina Luna (R-Florida)
Representative Anna Paulina Luna represents an unconventional lawmaker who has demonstrated willingness to work across the aisle, collaborating with Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on legislation to ban congressional stock trading and attempting to allow new parents to proxy vote before quitting the House Freedom Caucus. However, she has also courted controversy by inviting a Russian delegation to the Capitol and initially blocking Kevin McCarthy's nomination for Speaker before ultimately relenting.
While Trump won the Pinellas County seat by 12 percentage points in 2024, Luna secured only a 9.7-point victory margin. With the latest Economist/YouGov poll showing Democrats leading the generic ballot by 6 percentage points, she could easily face difficulties in her race against retired Brigadier General Leela Gray.
Representative Scott Perry (R-Pennsylvania)
Scott Perry stands as one of the original Tea Party firebrands and former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus who played a major role in Trump's attempts to remain in power after the 2020 election. Perry revealed that the FBI seized his phone following the agency's raid on Mar-a-Lago in 2022, and during the January 6 committee investigation, former Representative Liz Cheney indicated Perry had reportedly sought a presidential pardon.
The fundamental problem for Perry lies in his representation style: he behaves as though he represents a district that votes Republican by double-digit margins, but Trump won his seat by only 5.3 percentage points, and Perry defeated former news anchor Janelle Stelson by a mere 1.3 percent. Popular Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro won Perry's district in 2022, and as Shapiro attempts to run up the scoreboard in his re-election campaign before a potential presidential run, he could create significant coattail effects for Stelson's challenge against Perry.
The Broader Political Landscape
These five Republicans represent particularly vulnerable incumbents whose electoral fortunes have become increasingly tied to Trump's declining approval ratings. As Democrats target these districts in their quest to regain House control, the combination of presidential unpopularity, individual candidate vulnerabilities, and potentially strong Democratic statewide candidates creates a perfect storm that could sweep these Republicans from office. The 2026 midterm elections will test whether these underperforming incumbents can survive in an increasingly challenging political environment for their party.
