Senior Labour figures in London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, amid fears the party could face a 'political earthquake' in the capital's local elections in May. New data suggests a surge in support for the Greens could push Labour from first to fourth place, losing control of all but two of their councils.
The modelling, from data firm Bombe, predicts Labour could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens, with the party retaining outright majorities only in Newham and Redbridge. The Greens could take nine councils, including Lewisham, Waltham Forest and Greenwich, while the Conservatives would gain Barnet and Reform UK would take Barking and Dagenham.
Tony Travers, professor of local government at the London School of Economics, described the forecast as a 'political earthquake' that would profoundly shock London Labour MPs. He said the national party had taken London for granted, focusing on Reform-prone areas while exposing a flank on the left.
A senior London Labour figure said: 'The government needs to demonstrate that they’re not taking liberal, progressive voters in the capital for granted.' Another added: 'It’s going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swathes of voters on our progressive flank then we’re doomed.'
Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, warned last week that Labour faced an 'existential threat' in parts of the country in May, and risked repeating the loss of strongholds seen in Scotland in the 2000s. The Greens face a challenge in selecting enough candidates to contest every council seat to achieve the modelled results.
