Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2028, but many believe it will come sooner. However, the outcome may already be decided, especially after recent events. On Thursday, an appeals court removed the head of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), Özgür Özel, by annulling its 2023 leadership contest. Özel, credited with reviving the CHP after its victory in 2024 local elections, was one of the few senior figures not caught in a sweeping crackdown that has led to hundreds of CHP officials being arrested.
Human Rights Watch says the justice system has been weaponised against the opposition. A mass corruption trial opened in March, with defendants including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, arrested last year on the day he was chosen as the CHP's presidential candidate. He could face over 1,900 years in prison if convicted. Thursday's decision was seen as an effort to subdue and split the CHP, which called it a 'judicial coup'. Özel's unpopular predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost the 2023 election to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has been reinstated.
President Erdoğan has pursued an increasingly authoritarian path since coming to power in 2003, notably after the Gezi Park protests in 2013 and the 2016 coup attempt. He pushed through constitutional changes replacing the parliamentary system with a highly centralised presidential one. His acolytes control the media, and civil society has been pummelled. On Thursday, he signed a decree closing a private university known for liberal views. There is a two-term presidential limit, but Erdoğan could run again in early elections. His detente with Kurds might bring support from the pro-Kurdish party to change the constitution.
The bleak state of the economy is unlikely to improve given Turkey's heavy dependence on fuel imports. The soaring cost of living is eroding support. The central bank raised this year's inflation target from 16% to 24% this month. The stock market plunged by 6% after Özel's disqualification, and the lira hit record lows, though it recovered on Friday. Another tax amnesty won't ease economic woes or attract foreign investment in this uncertain climate.
Erdoğan has maintained support at home and compliance abroad by skilfully managing a complex international environment, including wars in the Gulf and Ukraine, and Syrian fragility. On Thursday, Donald Trump praised a 'tough guy' who has 'done a very good job'. For the EU, once a key source of pressure, the priority is now Ukraine. As Özel has angrily pointed out, Sir Keir Starmer and Labour had little to say about İmamoğlu's arrest. That is a mistake. Democracy does not disappear overnight; it is chipped away over months, years and decades. Without pushback, the next contest is being decided already.
