A final New York Times poll ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections gives Democrat Senate candidate James Talarico a seven-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas, the heart of Trump country. The survey points to a potentially devastating night for Donald Trump's Republican Party, with Democrats on track to seize control of Congress.
Democrats Lead in Key States
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has opened up an 11-point lead over Trump-backed Republican Mike Rogers. Democrats are also predicted to win Senate seats in Maine, Ohio and Kansas, where Trump visited on Sunday night for the second time during the campaign. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
The poll also shows Democrats with a slimmer lead in Alaska and Iowa, though it is within the margin of error. Republicans are nervously watching reports of huge early turnout in Texas, with many of the voters being young Hispanic people who did not vote in 2024. The last time Texas elected a Democrat Senator was in 1988, a year before Talarico was born.
Michigan Drama Unfolds
The poll came at the end of a day of high drama in Michigan, where Haley Stevens, a 'moderate' Democrat defeated by El-Sayed to represent the party in the Senate race, announced she would be voting for MAGA Republican Mike Rogers. The unexpected twist came after a row between the candidates over Israel and an ad by a third party group which some, including Stevens, said crossed the line into antisemitism.
Despite settling their differences, Stevens' fiancee, Jason Turkish, gave interviews over the weekend attacking El-Sayed and endorsing Rogers. It emerged that El-Sayed had told Stevens she was no longer welcome at his campaign events. After telling allies on Saturday night that she would not be switching sides, Stevens appeared at a church photo op with Rogers on Sunday morning.
Fallout and Reactions
Standing next to Rogers at a chaotic press conference outside the church, Stevens said: "Abdul made very clear that I was not welcome in his campaign, that he didn't need me there, that he didn't want me there. I did endorse the Democratic nominee, and he chose to close this campaign by saying I wasn't welcome. I've never been invited to a campaign event. That's fine. You know, he's busy. He's running all around."
Later, after a car crash CNN interview, where Stevens struggled to defend her decision, fellow Michigan congresswoman Debbie Dingell said: "That was one of the most painful interviews I have ever watched. I have been worried about her all last week. She's a human being. I have had multiple conversations with her. I'm far from being the only one that has."
Stevens' entire staff resigned following her announcement, and the Michigan Democratic Party are understood to have expelled her. Asked if she was surprised by Stevens' move, Dingell said: "I was stunned since she had told me she wasn't doing that last night at midnight."
