The Coalition is reeling after a devastating defeat in the Farrer byelection, where One Nation secured its first lower house seat in its own right. Businessman David Farley won the seat, which had been held by the Liberals or Nationals for 70 years, with a primary vote that dwarfed the combined Liberal and National candidates.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor appeared unprepared for the loss, falling back on talking points and defending the decision to preference One Nation over independent Michelle Milthorpe. Former Liberal MP Sussan Ley, who held the seat for decades, warned against underestimating the result, stating that Taylor's own words—'change or die'—are now more relevant than ever.
One Nation's success harnesses voter anxiety over the economy, immigration, and discontent with the political class. Despite policy inconsistencies, the party's appeal is growing, with four senators and Barnaby Joyce in the lower house, posing a significant threat at the 2028 federal election.
The result underscores the weakening of the two-party system and the challenge for the Coalition in countering right-wing populism. Every seat lost to One Nation strengthens Labor's hold on government, raising questions about Taylor's leadership and the Coalition's future strategy.
