Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, has been selected as Labour's candidate for the Makerfield by-election, a seat that Reform UK sees as a prime target. Labour has held the constituency since 1983, but its majority was reduced to just over 5,000 in the last general election, with Reform UK coming second after a significant vote share increase.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, described Makerfield as “tailor-made for Reform to do well in,” noting that two-thirds of the area voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum. However, he acknowledged an “Andy Burnham factor” could boost Labour, with voters viewing Burnham as “anti-Westminster” and “outside the system.” Tryl estimated a 20-point Burnham boost in polls, making him a narrow favourite.
Reform UK has selected local plumber Robert Kenyon as its candidate, who contested the seat in 2024. The party has circulated campaign material suggesting Burnham would stand “anywhere” for personal gain. A Labour source countered: “I was around with Andy at the weekend and people were literally stopping their cars to speak to him. People recognise him as a ‘local lad’.”
The by-election outcome is critical for both Burnham and Reform leader Nigel Farage. Defeat for Burnham would end his prime ministerial ambitions, while victory would demonstrate his ability to defeat Reform. For Farage, a win would prove he can beat the 'King of the North' in his own backyard.
