Big questions lie ahead for the would-be prime minister, as replacing Sir Keir Starmer could make things worse. Andy Burnham will almost certainly launch a campaign to replace Sir Keir Starmer, writes Sunday Mail Opinion.
By-Election Implications
If Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election on Thursday, it will have ramifications well beyond the north-west of England. The Manchester mayor will almost certainly launch an immediate campaign to replace Sir Keir Starmer and could even sweep into Downing Street unopposed.
Former ministers Wes Streeting and Al Carns are desperate to challenge for the job, and Starmer has vowed to fight to stay in post, but it is far from clear any of them have the necessary support.
Starmer's Troubled Premiership
Starmer’s premiership has been an unmitigated disaster from the beginning. He has never recovered from a botched attempt to cut the winter fuel allowance, the appointment of Peter Mandelson, and failing to fully condemn Israel’s slaughter of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.
But there is no guarantee that replacing the PM at this point will make things better – and a real risk they will get worse. Just ask the Tories how replacing Boris Johnson with Liz Truss and then Rishi Sunak worked out.
Burnham's Political Profile
Burnham is an astute political operator with bags of ministerial experience but without carrying the baggage of association with Starmer’s crumbling administration. He is viewed as being on Labour’s soft left with notable success in sticking up for Manchester during the pandemic and delivering a publicly operated bus service.
There is a suspicion, however, that he is a political chameleon who may not have the backbone to see a programme of real reform through when the going gets tough. He previously backed voting reform, abolition of the House of Lords, sweeping nationalisation of utilities, and devolution across the UK with more mayoralties.
Scottish and Westminster Perspectives
From a Scottish perspective, John Swinney will be keen to know whether Burnham still believes – as he told the Sunday Mail in 2022 – that blocking indefinitely a second referendum is not credible. At Westminster, there will be questions over how pushing power out of London – when many local authorities are controlled by Reform – will improve public services.
A drive to bring utilities back under public ownership is a long-term plan which could be transformative, but it is unlikely to result in tangible benefits in the short term.
The Challenge Ahead
Winning the top job could be the easy part for Burnham. Convincing the country he is the man for the job and defeating the dark rise of the far right with a message of hope and optimism will be a far bigger challenge.
