Andy Burnham's tenure as health secretary under Gordon Brown was not particularly memorable, but one civil servant described working for him as 'revising for exams with a mate who might turn to you and say: shall we sack this off for a bit and play football instead?' This image encapsulates the views of both his supporters and critics.
Supporters see a serious politician with an amiable manner, a combination that has proved successful in the Greater Manchester mayoralty. They believe he could reconnect Labour with voters lost under Keir Starmer. Sceptics, however, argue that his congeniality masks indecision, a trait that may be acceptable in local government but could lead to paralysis in a prime minister.
Burnham's path to Downing Street depends on winning a tricky by-election in Makerfield, a constituency that was once a safe Labour seat but is now competitive due to the rise of Reform UK. The contest highlights Labour's predicament: the old electoral landscape, where power alternated between two dominant parties, has fragmented. Working-class strongholds have been captured by Nigel Farage, while metropolitan areas turn Green.
The 2024 landslide election win gave a false impression of restored Labour supremacy, driven by anti-Tory sentiment rather than loyalty to Starmer's ill-defined project. Midterm support typically wanes, but the current situation suggests a deeper structural change. Reform UK voters are not merely flirting with a different party; they hold distinct ideological views, with 75% believing immigrants undermine national culture, compared to 35% of the wider public.
Research by John Curtice shows that Reform UK inspires a level of emotional attachment not seen in Labour or Conservative supporters for decades. This was evident in recent local elections, where 75% of Reform UK voters turned out, versus 62% for Labour. This enthusiasm gap, combined with Labour defections to the Greens, has boosted Farage's seat tally.
