Traders placed over $1 billion in perfectly timed bets on developments in the US-Israel war with Iran, raising concerns about insider trading. Sixteen bets of $100,000 each accurately predicted the timing of US airstrikes on Iran on 27 February, and a single user made over $550,000 betting on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's removal just before his assassination. On 7 April, traders bet $950 million that oil prices would fall hours before a ceasefire was announced.
The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on news events where insider information could give traders an advantage. Leaders of US federal agencies and some members of Congress want to crack down on suspicious trading, but experts question enforcement capabilities.
On 27 February, about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets totaling $855,000 that the US would strike Iran the next day. A single anonymous user, “Magamyman”, made over $553,000 betting on Khamenei's removal moments before his death, according to a complaint by Public Citizen to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Similar surges occurred in oil futures markets. On 23 March, traders placed $580 million in bets 15 minutes before Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran, and on 7 April, $950 million was bet on falling oil prices hours before the ceasefire. Experts say the timing and amounts suggest insider knowledge, warranting investigation.
