US President Donald Trump is treating the Iran crisis like a high-seas buccaneer, seeking an opportunity to make Tehran and other global capitals pay for his own war. All standards of international law and diplomatic norms are being broken with his insistence on charging 20% fees on Iranian vessels in and out of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US-imposed blockade on the Strait will, he claims, start tonight at midnight local time and will slap immense pressure on Iranian people desperate for supplies. Many of these will be the same people he promised ‘help is on the way’ as tens of thousands of them gave up their lives and liberty to oppose Tehran’s dreadful regime.
Bullying and Clown Diplomacy
Bullying force and financial pressure appear to be the only tools in Trump’s arsenal and not only is it not working but his infantile threats are making it far worse. Screaming words like ‘scum’ whilst deploying under-qualified negotiators, an estate agent and his rich-kid son-in-law as negotiators sums up his clown diplomacy in the Middle East.
Donald Trump has escalated tension in the Middle East (Image: AFP via Getty Images). A major problem is that Iran’s so-called regime has been damaged to such an extent that they do not know who to negotiate with. There is a diehard Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) element within the system that pivots away from the more diplomatic Tehran foreign office element.
Uncertainty Over Khamenei's Succession
And nobody really knows if slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Motjaba is actually alive, severely injured, conscious or able to rule the country. The US-based Soufan Centre, run by respected former FBI Middle East expert Ali Soufan, recently stressed: “The call for revenge reflects views expressed by some IRGC commanders and civilian hardliners that Iran should not be negotiating with the U.S. at all. Amid analysis that Khamenei might be deceased or incapacitated, it is conceivable that his call for revenge was formulated by a coalition of IRGC and other hardliners acting in his name. Experts argue that, through their attacks, Iranian hardliners are messaging that they see escalation as yielding Iran greater benefits than engagement.”
Children play in the sea in the Strait of Hormuz as strikes hit the Strait (Image: AP Photo/Razieh Poudat). So this escalation would appear to be the very thing that the IRGC-led element within Iran’s regime actually wants. It is becoming increasingly likely that within the regime, critics of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian will get the blame and the hardliners will grow in strength.
Hardliners Gaining Strength
This will paint over the divisions between the elite rulers and the hardliners will likely gain in strength. The gain from Iran’s point of view is humiliation of the US and its President, to challenge his infantile and bellicose attempt at a war of words. At that, they are clearly winning. Practically, the Iranian military is being degraded by every strike but they are proving that they continue to have the capacity to fire missiles and drones.
The cost of this to the US and the Gulf States in offensive and defensive weapons and the western economy is running into the hundreds of millions. And as seen at the recent NATO conference in Turkey, it is driving a significant wedge between Washington and European countries who do not want to support Trump’s war.
Washington says it is 'reinstating' a blockade on Iran (Image: AFPTV/AFP via Getty Images). Israel, as we have said repeatedly, is making merry by depleting Hezbollah in Lebanon and sees a long-term benefit from degrading Iran’s military.
Long-Term Consequences
But the longer Trump goes without seeing that something has to give, the worse the situation will become. This conflict may go on for many months, imposing a nightmare on global economies as they search for alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz. Much like the Israel-Iran aggression, it is likely to go on for years with the only other alternative unthinkable - a boots on the ground military operation to depose the Iranian regime. And there is even the possibility that it will go on for years as a grotesque stain on Trump’s administration that will never wash out, no matter how he tries to spin it.
