Donald Trump has been warned he faces just "two viable options" after the US military "intensified and widened" its strikes on Iran amid mounting concern over American casualties. Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, issued the stark assessment after the US military announced the deaths of multiple American troops killed by Iranian action over the weekend.
Escalation of US Military Action
Kavanagh stated that the United States had returned to war with Iran following a brief ceasefire. American forces have stepped up strikes on Iranian infrastructure and reimposed a blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. "After a short-lived ceasefire, the United States has returned to war against Iran. For the past nine days, the US military has intensified and widened its strikes on Iranian infrastructure targets and reimposed its blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz," she said.
Iran's retaliation has already proven costly and dangerous. At least three, probably four, US servicemembers lost their lives in recent days, and US bases across the Gulf region have been damaged.
Strategic Assessment
Kavanagh argued that the Trump administration's stated aim of restoring the pre-war status quo in the Strait of Hormuz could not be achieved through military action. "The Trump administration’s ostensible goal, restoring the pre-war status quo in Hormuz, is not achievable using military force. More bombing cannot take away Iran’s geographic advantages or eliminate its ability to strike ships passing through the maritime chokepoint. It also will not convince Iran’s new leadership to back down from what they see as an existential war," she explained.
Two Viable Options
She then warned that President Trump was left with two realistic courses of action. "President Trump has two viable options. He can make a deal that recognises that the balance of power in the region has shifted in Iran’s favour, or he can walk away and let the region and the international community manage the war’s fallout," Kavanagh said. "From the perspective of U.S. interests, either outcome is acceptable and preferred to risking more US lives and further expenditures of scarce US military resources in the Gulf."
Bleak Outlook
Kavanagh concluded with a bleak assessment of the conflict, claiming further escalation would only deepen the damage to the US. "The war has already been a strategic defeat for the United States, and escalating will only make the outcome worse," she said.
The warning comes after the US military launched fresh airstrikes targeting Iran's Revolutionary Guard following the deaths of American service members in Jordan. The US has also reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while President Trump has threatened to target Iran's power stations and bridges. The two countries remain locked in conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded passes in peacetime.
