The United States has turned its focus on Cuba, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio making clear his desire for regime change. While professing a preference for a 'negotiated settlement', he admitted the chances of a deal were 'not high'. The economic devastation caused by decades of US sanctions, and a crippling oil blockade introduced by Donald Trump in January, is already severe.
The US has charged former Cuban president Raúl Castro with conspiracy to kill US nationals, four counts of murder and two counts of destruction of aircraft over the downing of two planes in 1996. This move is grimly reminiscent of the indictment of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, used to justify his kidnapping by US forces. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is leaking intelligence claiming Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones, supposedly to attack the US base at Guantánamo Bay – a claim dismissed as a fantasy.
Trump has hardly kept his intentions secret. 'I do believe I'll be … having the honour of taking Cuba,' he declared in March, adding 'I think I could do anything I want with it'. Days ago, the USS Nimitz arrived in the Caribbean for a supposed maritime exercise. With the US 'humiliated' by Iran, as Germany's chancellor put it, failure may make the declining power more dangerous, seeking an easy scalp to restore its aura of supremacy.
US economic warfare has ground Cubans down. Ordinary citizens are exhausted: a taxi driver reported petrol prices jumping from $1.20 to $8 a litre, while the average monthly salary is about $16. Medical staff struggle to afford travel to hospitals lacking crucial medicines. Some blame Donald Trump directly; others simply want the nightmare to end. 'Cubans live on hope,' one taxi driver said, 'but something has to happen, because the people can't take it any longer.'
If Washington invades, it can – but there will be a fight. When the US attacked Caracas in January, 32 Cuban troops died resisting. Some citizens express defiance: 'Cubans have always defended ourselves – with a machete, with a stick,' one painter said. The US calculation may be that an exhausted populace will acquiesce, but the outcome remains uncertain.
