The ambitious Gaza reconstruction plan pursued by Donald Trump’s Board of Peace (BoP) has been dramatically reduced to a small pilot project in the south of the strip. The original blueprint for full recovery has been abandoned in favour of a temporary camp aimed at housing a tiny fraction of Gaza’s 2 million displaced people, with a Palestinian administration, police and a small international security force. The pilot scheme is not expected to take shape before the end of the year.
Incremental steps have been announced, including a few Moroccan and Kosovan officers arriving in Israel as the kernel of an International Stabilization Force (ISF). A logistical base for the ISF is nearing completion at the Kerem Shalom crossing. However, preparatory work on the pilot camp near Rafah has not begun, and satellite images show no new structures. Substantial progress is unlikely before Israeli elections on 27 October, which could bring down Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition.
Western diplomats believe the BoP had no choice but to scale back, as an admission of failure would open the way for extreme factions in the Israeli government advocating population transfer and colonisation. “The aim is just to keep something going, keep the ball in play,” one diplomat said. There is growing apprehension that Netanyahu, facing electoral defeat, may gamble on a new all-out offensive in Gaza before the vote.
Israel has routinely violated the Trump-brokered ceasefire since October, with frequent strikes killing more than 1,100 Palestinians. Israeli forces now occupy over 60% of Gaza. A return to full-scale war could sweep away even the modest pilot plan. Critics like Muhammad Shehada of the European Council on Foreign Relations warn the project is a propaganda tool, a “caged and controlled Potemkin village” to lend credence to Israel’s escalating campaign.
Disarmament talks in Cairo between Hamas, Israeli-backed militias and the BoP face hurdles. Hamas is willing to disarm under conditions, but progress is unlikely while Israel continues airstrikes and advances into Hamas-held territory. A Palestinian source told Haaretz: “As long as Israel doesn’t commit to a gradual withdrawal, there’s no basis for talks.” The BoP’s high representative for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, has been criticised for echoing Israeli positions.
