As tensions escalate across the Middle East, increasing strain is emerging between Washington and Israel, with President Donald Trump facing a difficult choice between ending the Iran war and appeasing Israel. The past 24 hours have seen violent exchanges between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, alongside US attacks on southern Iran, prompting Tehran to respond in kind.
Sources indicate that Washington is becoming wary of Israeli warnings against offering sanctions relief and frozen asset relief to Tehran. Israeli diplomats have launched an intense campaign, arguing that financial relief would go directly to Hezbollah. Trump's advisers are concerned that such warnings may hinder peace negotiations, but they are also wary of being misled, as Trump has previously fallen for similar arguments.
Trump is demanding solutions to the Iran war and needs an exit strategy soon. However, every potential solution—sanctions relief, freeing frozen assets, or long-term no-attack guarantees—points to a humiliating defeat for Trump's war effort. The elusive prize of securing Tehran's enriched uranium and guarantees against further nuclear development remains a major demand.
Israel insists that Tehran's frozen assets should not be released, fearing they will fund Hezbollah. Trump hopes to offset any humiliation by pushing the Abraham Accords, which normalise relations between Israel and Arab nations. However, few are expected to be convinced by this narrative, though some Gulf countries may agree to stop the war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is widely credited with persuading Trump to go to war with Iran, opposes including Hezbollah in any deal. Meanwhile, Tehran insists that Lebanon must be included in long-term guarantees of no war, which could become a major sticking point. Tehran has also escalated tensions by shooting down a drone in response to US attacks, warning Washington of threats to its military.
The next few days could see increased missile exchanges between all parties, as ceasefires continue to be violated. Trump knows he is beaten but is trying to hide it, while Tehran grows increasingly emboldened.
