When US President Donald Trump warned Tehran that the ‘clock is ticking’, it was as much a projection of his own position as it was of the Iranian dilemma. Yet even as he considers his own precarious political problems at home, the US and Israel are considering further strikes on Iran this week.
Ceasefire on the Brink
This would bring an end to the five-week ceasefire during which he has failed to force Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, and he is running out of time. Even now, there is still no end in sight for a far-reaching war that is devastating global economies and US standing in the world.
Trump is desperate for an off-ramp away from this war, and Israel simply is not, as Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to continue hammering its military and leadership. Many of the ballistic weapons and other less potent bombs Iran had before the war are still believed to exist, and Tehran has been busy.
Iranian Military Activity
Its military teams have excavated weapons and launcher systems buried, it is believed, in the initial strikes by the US and Israel. Israel will want to take these out as they represent a major threat to its cities if the war, as is expected, starts up again with ferocity.
The United Arab Emirates has come under increasing pressure in recent days to respond to Iran’s attack on it as the closest Gulf State ally to Israel. In the latest attack, the UAE blamed a fire near its nuclear power plant on one of three drones launched by Iran, in what the UAE called a “dangerous escalation.”
Although it was just outside the Barakah nuclear plant and caused no injuries or radiation alerts, it was a warning and a sign Iran is goading the UAE to become involved. The United States continuing the war and then dumping the pressure on local neighbours of Iran such as the UAE must surely have occurred to Trump as a much-needed off-ramp.
Trump's Dilemma
He could hide or palm off the cost of the war whilst still supplying the UAE, whilst withdrawing some of his military assets, whilst wrongly claiming the war is won. Sanctions could be released to Iran as demanded by Tehran, but that then leaves the war between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, which is ongoing.
So even if the war does continue, at least for the feared few weeks it is expected to, Lebanon has not been resolved and neither has the Strait of Hormuz been freed up. Trump is in a perilous position, and even if all of the above was sorted out today, it would take months to return energy prices to pre-war levels around the world.
A Gambler's Strategy
But as usual, he is playing for time as the situation worsens, upping the ante whilst his resources and ability to do so expire by the day, like a gambler drunk on the memory of previous wins such as Venezuela. This war appears to be on the brink of exploding again, and there is no immediate sign of it being resolved, as it suits both Iran and the Israeli government.
That is piling immense pressure on the US to simply walk away and leave it to the Middle East to sort out — a strategy rarely tried by the US and bound for failure.
