The arrival of Vladimir Putin in Beijing so soon after Donald Trump’s visit marks a watershed in international relations, with the leaders of the dominant superpowers of the second half of the 20th century visibly passing the baton of global pre-eminence to China. Both the Russian and American presidents visit Beijing nowadays as supplicants looking for support and endorsement from Xi Jinping.
China would like the wars in Ukraine and Iran to end and hopes to reopen overland rail links to Europe via Russia and Ukraine. Xi could mediate a settlement between the Kremlin and Kyiv where Trump failed. The Financial Times reported on Xi’s indiscretion to Trump that Putin might ‘come to regret’ his invasion, though China has since denied this.
Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, with growing Ukrainian drone strikes embarrassing Putin, while the US appears at an impasse in Iran. Trump announced he was stalling the bombing of Iran at the ‘request’ of Gulf Arab leaders, likely to avoid forcing Xi and Putin to coordinate their response in real time. Perhaps Trump hopes that Iran’s two major supporters would influence Tehran to make concessions.
President Xi is shepherding the other two nuclear behemoths into global cooperation with him as chair. China wants to avoid the ‘Thucydides Trap’—the ancient Greek model of war between a rising and established power. Some observers speculate Trump has been soft on Russia to draw Putin away from Xi, a reverse of the Nixon-Kissinger embrace of Mao’s China. More likely is acceptance of spheres of influence, where Russia abandons its allies in the Americas in return for Washington’s indifference in Eastern Europe, and China gets its economic interests respected.
Europe, however, faces a grim future. It occupies a lower position in Beijing's hierarchy, as shown by China’s big bet on electric vehicles reducing the German automobile industry’s share. Russia and the USA supply raw materials China needs, while Europe competes with Chinese industry but faces higher energy costs. Europe is fading as a source of Chinese imports, and its attempts to assert sovereignty seem doomed. Meanwhile, China, Russia and the USA share a common stance against the International Criminal Court, with Trump reportedly suggesting they join forces against it.
