Concerns are escalating that the war in Ukraine is spilling over into NATO's northern borders, as military drones increasingly violate the airspace of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These incursions are directly linked to Ukraine's intensified long-range attacks targeting Russian Baltic Sea oil shipping ports. Reports indicate that some of these unmanned aerial vehicles have missed their intended targets, prompting urgent security warnings across the neighbouring nations.
Notably, a drone incident in Latvia was even cited as a factor in the collapse of its government, highlighting the growing instability in the region. Following is a timeline of recent drone incidents involving Finland and the three Baltic states: Two stray Ukrainian military drones entered Estonia and Latvia via Russia. One hit a chimney at Estonia's Auvere power station, near the Russian border, and another crash-landed in Latvia. Lithuania had earlier reported a Ukrainian drone crashing into a lake.
Finland reported a suspected territorial violation by unmanned aerial vehicles in its southeast and deployed F/A-18 fighter jets. One flying object was identified as a Ukrainian AN-196 drone. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said strong Russian electronic jamming could explain drones drifting into Finnish airspace. Estonia and Latvia detected foreign drone activity near their borders with Russia, and the Finnish border guard found a drone on its territory. Estonia later discovered drone debris in Tartu County.
Estonia's armed forces said drones detected in the country appeared to have come from Ukraine and to have been intended for Russia. Latvia and Lithuania called on NATO to strengthen air defences after two suspected stray drones crossed from Russia and crashed in Latvia. One exploded at an oil storage facility in the Latvian region of Rezekne, damaging four empty oil tanks. Andris Spruds resigned as Latvia's defence minister after Prime Minister Evika Silina said anti-drone systems had not been deployed fast enough.
Ukraine said the drones were Ukrainian but had been diverted by Russian electronic warfare. Silina resigned as prime minister, triggering the collapse of Latvia's coalition government after Spruds' Progressives party withdrew support. Finnish authorities warned 1.8 million people in the wider Helsinki region to stay indoors because of suspected drone activity, and suspended air traffic at the capital airport while scrambling fighter jets. President Alexander Stubb said there was no direct military threat to Finland.
Explosives were found near the debris of a suspected Ukrainian military drone that crashed in Lithuania, near the Latvian border and Belarus. Lithuanian officials said the drone was not detected when it entered the country. A Romanian NATO fighter jet shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone over Estonia after it entered Estonian airspace from Russia. Ukraine apologised to Estonia and other Baltic allies, saying Russia redirected the drone through electronic warfare, and denied using Latvian or Estonian territory to launch strikes on Russia.
