Russia has warned that it will be forced to bolster its defences in the Baltic region, potentially including the deployment of nuclear weapons, if Finland and Sweden join Nato. The threat comes as the war in Ukraine enters its seventh week and as the two Nordic countries consider abandoning decades of military non-alignment.
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and senior security council member, said that all of Russia’s forces in the region would be strengthened if the two nations joined the US-led alliance. He explicitly raised the nuclear threat, stating that there could be “no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic – the balance must be restored”.
Lithuania’s defence minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, downplayed the warning, claiming that Russia already stores nuclear weapons in its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. This claim has not been independently verified, although the Federation of American Scientists reported in 2018 that nuclear weapon storage bunkers in Kaliningrad had been upgraded. Experts remain divided on whether warheads are currently present.
The CIA director, William Burns, expressed concern over the rhetoric but noted that there is little practical evidence of preparations for nuclear use. “We haven’t seen a lot of practical evidence of the kind of deployments or military dispositions that we would reinforce that concern,” he said.
Finland and Sweden are expected to decide on Nato membership within weeks, with Finland’s prime minister, Sanna Marin, indicating a decision is imminent. Their accession would more than double Russia’s land border with Nato members, prompting Moscow to reinforce ground, air and naval defences in the region.
