Norwegian politicians are preparing for potential fallout in US-Norway relations if Donald Trump is not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, with the announcement expected later on Friday. The Norwegian Nobel Committee confirmed on Thursday that it had reached a decision on the 2025 laureate before the Israel-Hamas ceasefire brokered by Trump, leading experts to deem a Trump win unlikely.
Kirsti Bergstø, leader of Norway's Socialist Left party, said Oslo must be 'prepared for anything' given Trump's volatile and authoritarian tendencies. 'When the president is this volatile and authoritarian, of course we have to be prepared for anything,' she told the Guardian, noting that Trump may not understand the Nobel Committee's independence from the Norwegian government.
Trump has long expressed a belief that he deserves the prize, following in the footsteps of Barack Obama, who won in 2009. In July, Trump reportedly called former Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg to inquire about the Nobel. At the UN last month, he falsely claimed to have halted seven wars, stating, 'Everyone says I should get the Nobel peace prize.'
Analyst Harald Stanghelle speculated that Trump's retribution could include tariffs, demands for higher Nato contributions, or even declaring Norway an enemy. 'He is so unpredictable,' Stanghelle said. 'It's very difficult to explain to Donald Trump that it is a totally independent committee.'
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, emphasised the committee's apolitical decision-making, though he acknowledged that its appointment by parliament complicates perceptions of independence. 'I know first-hand the committee acts completely independently,' he said.
Likely candidates for the prize include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom, according to Nina Græger of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. She noted that while Trump deserves credit for the Gaza ceasefire, it is too early to assess its lasting impact.
