Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, has been appointed as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, a move that signals a new approach to security and negotiations. The appointment comes as both Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies predict that no peace deal will be reached in 2026.
In a New Year’s Eve address, Zelenskyy stated that a peace agreement was “90% ready” but cautioned that “those 10% contain, in fact, everything.” This undercuts claims by US President Donald Trump that a deal is imminent. Trump had promised to end the war within 24 hours of taking office, a pledge that has not materialised.
Talks earlier in 2025 were triggered by a leaked US-Russia peace plan that would have required Ukraine to cede the Donbas region. The US army secretary, Dan Driscoll, urged Nato diplomats in Kyiv to accept the deal or face worse terms later. Zelenskyy, backed by European allies, resisted that plan, which many Ukrainians saw as a capitulation.
Exhausted Ukrainians are increasingly open to a settlement, even a bad one. “I think by this stage, probably the majority would be ready to go for a bad deal; anything to stop the fighting,” said Serhiy, a soldier on home leave in Kyiv. He himself prefers to keep fighting rather than accept terms that could be disastrous for Ukraine in the long term.
As 2026 begins, the best-case scenario for Ukraine is to hold out until Russia’s internal situation forces the Kremlin to negotiate on terms that do not require Ukrainian capitulation. The worst-case scenarios are too bleak to contemplate. Budanov’s appointment, after the resignation of Andrii Yermak in a corruption scandal, may herald a shift in Kyiv’s strategy.
