The fragile ceasefire in the Middle East appeared on the verge of complete collapse on Tuesday following a series of attacks on the United Arab Emirates and exchanges of fire in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insisted that the truce was "not over," despite the latest drone and missile strikes in the UAE and clashes along the key global shipping route. However, Tehran issued a stark warning, stating "we are just getting started," amid growing concerns that the United States may be unable to resolve the conflict it initiated alongside Israel more than two months ago.
Trump's Response and Rising Rhetoric
Former President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, downplayed Iran's attacks as mere "games" and asserted that the US has "total control" of the situation. "They are very proud ... but they should wave the white flag of surrender," Trump said, dismissing the escalating tensions. His comments came just a day after he launched 'Project Freedom' on Monday, an initiative aimed at guiding "innocent bystander" ships through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran's claims of control over the waterway.
Iran's Warning and Political Reactions
Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who previously led Tehran through negotiations with Washington, accused the US of endangering shipping through the strait with what Tehran has dubbed "Project Deadlock." "We know full well that the continuation of the status quo is intolerable for America, while we have not even begun yet," Ghalibaf wrote on social media. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer condemned Iran's recent attacks and joined international calls for de-escalation, urging Tehran to engage "meaningfully" in talks to ensure the ceasefire endures.
US Defense Secretary's Stance
In a briefing to reporters, Hegseth attempted to frame Monday's clashes in the Strait as natural "churn," while warning that Trump reserves the capability to reopen the wider conflict if necessary. "The option is always there, and Iran knows that. And that's why their choices in Project Freedom are important," he said, describing the mission as a "gift" to the rest of the world while downplaying the US need for the waterway. Hegseth noted that the operation would be temporary and that other nations would soon have to "step up" and take responsibility for the Strait themselves, amid a widening rift with Nato allies over their perceived lack of support for Trump's war.
Military Operations and Escalation Risks
Gen Dan 'Razin' Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships since the ceasefire agreement came into force last month. He added that more than 100 American aircraft remain in the air 24 hours a day to provide defensive overwatch, a fraction of the some 15,000 service personnel involved in operations in the region. "Commercial vessels will see, hear and frankly feel American combat power around them, in the sea, in the skies and on the radio," he said. Gen. Caine stated that the operation would require "patience and engagement," after demonstrating on Monday that the US could enter the Strait of Hormuz and guide ships. He confirmed that the US military remains ready to resume major combat operations against Iran if ordered to do so.
Expert Analysis and Economic Impact
Dr Martin Navias, senior visiting research fellow at the Centre for Defence Studies, King's College London, described Iran's attacks as "reckless" but noted that Tehran lacks the military capability to compel the United States to back down. "The Americans have upped the ante here, and there is the danger that even these limited actions will prompt an Iranian response, that will demand an American counter response. But ... the United States does not appear to have made the decision to force [the Strait of Hormuz] open yet," he said. "The United States has the force to force the strait open, but that will require a major escalation, and that escalation will not be limited to the Gulf. It will have to be part of a broader resumption of strikes on Iran. And it doesn't appear that the Trump administration has reached that point yet."
Nitya Labh, a fellow on the International Security Programme at London's Chatham House, warned that the US push to assist global shipping in the region was "extremely risky." "I think what's happening is quite escalatory, it suggests the US isn't willing to negotiate over the terms of reopening the Strait," she told the BBC. "The US has accepted that the only way to continue to move shipping is under the threat of force or strikes from Iran."
Economic Warnings and UK Exposure
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs issued a warning that Britain was the nation "most exposed" to jet fuel shortages caused by the Iran war, raising fears of more cancelled flights and ruined summer holidays. The UK is highly reliant on imports that come through the closed Strait of Hormuz and has "critically low levels" of supplies and poor refining tools, according to analysts at one of the world's largest investment banks. In response to Monday's attacks, the UAE restricted flights to a handful of approved routes until at least 11 May and activated emergency security protocols, just two days after lifting all precautionary airspace measures and declaring its airspace clear.
