Cuba is grappling with the fallout from the US operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, threatening its longstanding alliance with Venezuela. The bond, symbolised by a billboard outside the Venezuelan embassy in Havana reading “Hasta Siempre Comandante” alongside a picture of Hugo Chávez, now faces potential unraveling as Caracas may be forced to withdraw support.
The island, already in financial crisis, relies heavily on Venezuelan oil shipments. Experts note that both economies are damaged, but the loss of Venezuelan support could exacerbate Cuba’s struggles. Recent blackouts, like those on Monday, highlight the ongoing energy woes. Meanwhile, the US administration has maintained sanctions but taken little direct action, with President Trump stating that “Cuba is ready to fall”.
Cuba’s government has acknowledged that 32 Cubans died in the US military attack on Venezuela, a rare admission of its security and intelligence support. Family members mourned on social media, with one aunt of officer Fernando Báez Hidalgo likening his death to that of 19th-century independence fighters. Maduro’s regime had relied on Cuban expertise in countering US intelligence, including foiling a 2019 coup attempt.
Havana’s political unity shows signs of strain. Former economy minister Alejandro Gil was sentenced to life imprisonment for corruption and espionage in December. A five-year party conference has been delayed due to a letter from 94-year-old Raúl Castro, citing the economic climate. Speculation continues about the aftermath of his death, though few expect regime change. “We’ve been there before in the 1990s,” said Michael Bustamante of the University of Miami, noting that economic deterioration does not necessarily lead to collapse.
