Russia has become the unexpected beneficiary of the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to a Guardian analysis. Before the conflict began in late February, Moscow was preparing deep budget cuts to fund its invasion of Ukraine. However, the war has driven global oil prices from $72 to over $100 per barrel, providing Russia with billions in extra revenue.
Restrictions on Russian oil exports have been lifted as Asian countries, including India and China, turn to Moscow to fill supply gaps. This reversal has given Vladimir Putin's war machine a financial lifeline, while Ukraine grows increasingly nervous about its ability to obtain defensive weapons from the US.
Despite these gains, Russia faces domestic unrest. A crackdown on messaging apps like Telegram and WhatsApp, coupled with frustration over slow progress in Ukraine, has seen Putin's approval rating fall to 70%, the lowest since the invasion. A prominent pro-Kremlin blogger was recently sent to a psychiatric ward after calling Putin 'illegitimate'.
The analysis notes that while Russia benefits from the Iran conflict, the situation remains volatile. The lifting of oil restrictions and rising prices could lead to renewed European interest in Russian gas, a devastating prospect for Ukraine.
